The US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz crisis continue to put pressure on markets. Attacks on Iran entered their fifth day this week, and the possibility of a new wave of inflation from the sharp rise in oil prices stands out as a concrete risk threatening long-term interest rate cut expectations.

On the crypto front, the fate of the CLARITY Act will be decided in a narrow window before August. Senate Majority Leader Thune has promised a floor vote before the August recess, with the third week of July currently being discussed as the target date. But the obstacles are serious; the combined Senate draft released on Tuesday does not include the ethics clause that Democrats require for voting, leading Senators Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley to formally oppose the bill.

As you mentioned, the banking sector's objection is still on the table, and this isn't a complaint from a single institution. 78 banking organizations sent a joint letter to Senate leaders arguing that stablecoin reward structures could alienate bank deposits and threaten local banking and lending operations. The American Bankers Association even sent over eight thousand protest letters on this issue at one point. Banks claim the stablecoin interest rate ban in the GENIUS Act leaves a loophole, allowing third parties to still offer rewards similar to deposit interest, and are seeking additional restrictions in the CLARITY Act. This disagreement has been ongoing for months and remains unresolved even after committee approval in May.

This tension isn't one-sided either; Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently withdrew his support for the bill, accusing banks of stifling competition through regulatory entrapment, while Trump, via Truth Social, accused banks of "holding the bill hostage." So both the crypto sector and political leadership are impatient with the banks' objections, but the dispute remains unresolved.

On the Bitcoin side, after failing to break through the $65,500 resistance, the price actually retreated to the $63,000 range, and even dropped as low as $62,800 today following a new US attack on Iran. The aforementioned $61,000 and $58,000 support levels remain critical, consistent with the current technical picture.

The next three weeks are truly critical, as both the passage of the CLARITY Act through the Senate and the FOMC meeting in the last week of July converge within the same narrow window. If the Act passes in its current form, or if a revised version addressing banking objections reaches Trump's desk in August, there is strong upside potential in the crypto market. However, if the banking lobby is not satisfied within these three weeks, it would not be surprising if the process shifts back to after August, creating a new wave of uncertainty in the market.

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