$BTC Bitcoin tested the $65,500 level twice this week but was rejected each time, and is currently retreating in the $62,800-$64,100 range. A sharp sell-off on July 13th pushed the price down from $64,570 to $61,900, followed by an attempted recovery to $65,740 on July 15th, but this level was not held, and the price retreated again. As of today, a new US attack on Iran and Trump's statements regarding China stand out as fresh developments further suppressing risk appetite.

The mentioned support levels of $61,000 and $58,000 appear consistent with the current technical picture. Analysts emphasize that if a sustained break below $63,750 occurs, the $61,800-$62,000 range and then the $60,000 level could come into play. NYDIG's second-quarter report compares the current correction to the four-year bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022—not a definitive conclusion, but a striking historical parallel in terms of similar depth and duration.

Market maker Wintermute's assessment also clearly summarizes this week's picture: bitcoin attempted to break above $65,000 twice this week but failed, with profit-taking and weak spot trading volume indicating a lack of genuine conviction. Glassnode's on-chain data has yet to signal a trend reversal, and the fear and greed index remains in the extreme fear zone.

The two main agenda items mentioned—developments in the Middle East and the CLARITY Act—are indeed the two catalysts the market is watching most closely right now. The Iran conflict entered its fifth day this week, and a new US attack occurred today. On the Clarity Act side, Friday's field hearing and Senate Majority Leader Thune's pledge for the third week of July stand out as separate catalysts closely watched by market makers. JPMorgan's note of steady inflows into its leveraged Strategy ETFs over the past seven weeks is also seen as a separate positive signal, especially in contrast to the inconsistency in spot ETF flows.

Tracking both technical levels and news flow simultaneously is a truly sound approach in this environment, as much of the price movement is currently being shaped by macro factors such as oil prices and Fed policy, rather than bitcoin-specific news. The $65,000-$65,600 range remains a critical battleground in the short term; a clean break above this level could improve momentum, while a drop below $62,000 could reinforce a consolidation scenario.

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