A lot of people ask me: is this the bottom now? Strangely, though, not many people around me are actually buying with their hands.

It feels way too familiar—exactly like what it looked like at the start of the last bull market.

In March 2020, at the peak of panic during the pandemic, BTC was dumped from nearly $10,000 straight down to $3,800. Back then, the whole internet was shouting “Bitcoin will go to zero,” as if the world would abandon crypto. What happened instead? It started from $3,800 and, one year later, surged to $64k—16 times. Later, many people regretted it saying they “would’ve known” to buy the dip, but when it came to that panic point, how many dared to reach out? The bottom has never come with applause.

Looking at this round, history is almost repeating itself. In 2022, the LUNA collapse, the Three Arrows liquidation, and FTX imploding—BTC fell from $69k to $15k, a drop of over 75%, and the market was drowned in despair. But while everyone was declaring the industry dead, a new cycle was quietly taking shape amid the wreckage.

Still, this round has one fundamental difference—the money has changed. Last cycle’s bull run relied on global retail FOMO chasing the pump—everyone was afraid of missing out and rushed in. This time, Wall Street has genuinely connected the entry channel with real money. In January 2024, US spot ETFs were approved. Just BlackRock’s IBIT, as a single product, pulled in $22 billion, and the entire market of ETFs secured over $64k in traditional capital. Now, when people buy BTC, many aren’t trading the concept—they’re treating it as digital gold for allocation.

Let’s talk about the recent chart. A while back, BTC retraced to above $50k. Screens everywhere were speculating whether it would drop back to $40k, whether the bull market was over, and to wait another half year. The result: yesterday, a bullish candle broke above $65k, and the mood instantly shifted to, “Can it still get in?”

At the end of 2020, when it broke above $20k, people said it was too fast and they didn’t dare chase. In 2021, when it surged to $40k, everyone waited for a pullback before buying the dip, and they ended up waiting all the way to $60k. The market never rewards those who keep waiting—it only rewards those who can think independently in fear and dare to hold their coins.

Of course, I won’t claim the bull market is settled just because it broke above $65k. Fed policy, US dollar liquidity, follow-on ETF inflows, and geopolitical risks—every variable could change the trajectory. But the biggest difference between this year and last year is this: the topic has shifted from “can the industry still survive?” to “how much more can it rise?” Those two questions represent completely different stages of the cycle.

Everyone wants a perfect buying point—if it drops, they want it to drop a bit more; if it rises, they’re afraid of chasing too high and getting trapped. But the reality is: in every bull market, the fattest profits show up when people are still unsure. At the end of 2019, nobody believed BTC could reach $60k. In March 2020, at the $3,800 “golden pit,” there were only a handful of people who went in with heavy positions. The market doesn’t wait for us to be fully prepared before it lifts off—it often completes the reversal quietly in those days when you’re hesitating.

Right now, I’ll just pick the mainstream I can understand, take some positions in batches, and then wait patiently. When you see this cycle play out, you’ll realize the most deadly thing in investing isn’t buying too early and getting trapped—it’s waiting until everyone is sure the bull market is here, and you end up having not a single coin. #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4%