BTC worth $63,300—what are you still waiting for?

First, look at the surface: range trading at high levels, with both bulls and bears cursing.

After a bottoming out at 58k-60k at the end of June, there was a violent rebound to 64k-65k in early July. Now, around 63k, it’s grinding back and forth. The last 24 hours saw less than a 1% swing, trading volume is shrinking, RSI is neutral at 50-60, and the MACD histogram is contracting—direction is about to be chosen. Don’t get washed out of the car.

First thing: the ETF is back, but you may not have noticed.

In June alone, net outflows exceeded $4 billion—an all-time record. Retail investors panicked. But July is clearly turning around—BlackRock IBIT saw daily inflows of over $200 million, with the flagship product registering net inflows for consecutive days.

Same story happened once in July 2025. Back then nobody believed it—later BTC rose from 55k to 75k.

What you see in the news is always “ETF outflows of $4 billion,” and nobody tells you “July is already back with $2 billion.”

Second thing: the low point in June wasn’t a crash—it was a shakeout.

In that 58k-60k move at the end of June, the whole network liquidated mostly longs, and sentiment was extremely panicked. But look at on-chain data: long-term holders are accumulating, mid-size whales are buying, miner reserves are stable, and the Puell Multiple is in a low zone.

Strategy sold a bit of BTC—markets nearly died from fear. But if you look closely, that amount is less than a small fraction of their holdings. They were just doing an asset allocation adjustment, and you thought the sky was falling.

Third thing: macro is changing, but you might not be able to read it.

The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. June nonfarm payrolls were weak and far below expectations—so the probability of further hikes fell, while expectations for rate cuts warmed up.

One Fed-related headline can push BTC up 5% or drop it 8%. Weak employment + sticky inflation = stagflation worries; but weak employment + inflation easing = rate-cut expectations, and BTC simply flies.

Bulls vs bears—judge for yourself.

One side:

July ETFs keep flowing back, BlackRock’s daily inflows over $200 million

The 58k June low confirmed a strong support, and the V-shaped rebound proves the buy-side is strong

Long-term holders keep accumulating, whales adding

RSI is neutral and hasn’t gone overbought, with upside room

The other side:

Middle East geopolitical tension is tight, and oil price volatility suppresses risk assets

The US dollar index strengthens, and US Treasury yields weigh on BTC

The shadow of Strategy’s selling is still there

64.5k-66k is a dense supply zone—breakout requires volume

Key levels

Resistance above: 64.5k-66k (EMA cluster + dense supply zone) → 70,000+

Support below: 61,000-62,000 → 58k-60,000 (the “iron bottom”)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 61,000-62,000 and buy in batches, stop-loss at 60,500, target 65k-66,500. Near 64,800-65,500 with low volume, you can lightly try a short—stop-loss above 66,500, target 62,000-61,000.

For swing players:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 64.5k before getting in on the right side, target 70,000+. If it breaks below 61,000 and expands volume, stand by first.

For long-term believers:

Below 63k, invest steadily with no closing your eyes—ignore short-term volatility. Target: the 2028 halving cycle high. Allocate 10-20% of total position to BTC, keep cash ready for black swan events.

BTC’s current state—

That end-of-June move was “liquidity sweeping,” not the start of a bear market. The July ETF inflow is a signal, but 64.5k is the test stone.

When others are fearful, be greedy. When others are greedy, be fearful. But more importantly: don’t cut losses during the shakeout.

On the day it breaks 65,000, you’ll realize:

It’s not that BTC is bad—it’s that every time you get scared off at the lowest points. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $SOL