After SpaceX, will OpenAI become the next most closely watched tech stock?

After SpaceX completed a major IPO, market attention for the “next super tech stock” quickly shifted to OpenAI. Both companies have global brands, cutting-edge technology, and valuation narratives approaching the hundred billion level, but the sharp volatility after SpaceX’s listing also reminds investors that notoriety, technological imagination, and a high valuation do not necessarily translate into stable performance in public markets.

OpenAI has already secretly filed for a U.S. IPO, with its latest private funding valuation reaching $852 billion, and it has been reported that it may seek a listed valuation as high as about $1 trillion. It has the qualifications to become the next super tech IPO after SpaceX, but whether it can continue to draw market attention after going public ultimately depends on whether revenue growth, compute costs, profitability, and the offering valuation can reach a balance.

After SpaceX’s IPO, why did the market start focusing on OpenAI?

SpaceX’s listing is not only a company entering the public market, but also reopens investors’ imagination about large private tech enterprises. Its business spans rocket launches, the Starlink satellite internet, defense contracts, and future space infrastructure. In the early stage of listing, it drove the company’s valuation to rise rapidly, becoming one of the most watched capital market events of 2026.

OpenAI and SpaceX have similar market appeal. Both are supported by highly scarce technical capabilities. Their business boundaries may extend far beyond current products, and they also require massive capital investment to sustain growth. SpaceX represents commercial space and satellite communications, while OpenAI represents generative AI, enterprise intelligence, and future software platforms.

After SpaceX’s IPO, the market naturally began searching for the next company that has global influence, large funding needs, and a long-term industry narrative. OpenAI has already completed a secret S-1 filing and, according to reports, may enter the public market as early as the second half of 2026, making it the most direct candidate.

How far is OpenAI from a formal IPO?

OpenAI secretly filed its U.S. IPO documents in June 2026, but it has not yet released a complete prospectus, nor has it disclosed the exchange, ticker, number of shares to be offered, price range, or the official listing date. A secret filing means the company has entered the regulatory review stage, but it does not mean the IPO timing and offering plan are already finalized.

Media reports say OpenAI has considered listing as early as September 2026 and may seek a valuation as high as about $1 trillion. However, this timing window could still be affected by SEC review, the public market environment, the company’s operational arrangements, and its valuation goals.

To judge whether OpenAI is close to a formal listing, you need to watch for several clearer signals:

• Whether the S-1 registration filing has turned into a public document;
• Whether underwriters, the exchange, and the ticker are disclosed;
• Whether the offering size and price range are revealed;
• Whether institutional roadshows and bookbuilding have officially started.

Before these milestones appear, OpenAI is more accurately described as “a private company preparing to go public,” rather than a tech stock that can already be traded through ordinary brokerage accounts.

Why can both OpenAI and SpaceX command super valuations?

The commonality between OpenAI and SpaceX is that the market is not valuing them solely based on current profits, but pricing in the future industry platforms they might form ahead of time. SpaceX’s valuation includes the imagination space for global satellite communications, commercial launches, defense business, and future space infrastructure; OpenAI’s valuation includes ChatGPT, enterprise AI, developer APIs, agents, and the long-term potential of its compute platform.

In March 2026, OpenAI completed $12.2 billion in funding, and its post-investment valuation reached $852 billion. Its annualized revenue, reported at the end of February 2026, had already exceeded $25 billion, up from $21.4 billion at the end of 2025, indicating that its scale of commercialization is expanding quickly.

However, the reason these companies receive high valuations is not only revenue. They both have clear technical barriers, strong brand influence, a large potential market, and higher entry thresholds—so investors are willing to pay a premium in advance for a future market position.

The issue is that this valuation approach also raises performance requirements. Once the public market believes that the growth rate, profit level, or capital efficiency cannot match earlier expectations, stock adjustments tend to be more pronounced than those of mature tech companies.

How do OpenAI and SpaceX’s business models differ?

Both OpenAI and SpaceX are high-tech, high-capital-expenditure businesses, but their revenue mix and the path to value realization are not the same. OpenAI is closer to the combination of a software platform and compute infrastructure, while SpaceX is closer to the combination of manufacturing, communication networks, and space infrastructure.

| Comparison dimension | OpenAI | SpaceX | | --- | --- | --- | | Core business | AI models, ChatGPT, enterprise services and APIs | Rocket launches, satellite internet, and space infrastructure | | Main revenue | Subscriptions, enterprise contracts, API calls, and partnership revenue | Launch services, Starlink subscriptions, and government contracts | | Capital investment | GPUs, data centers, energy, and model training | Rockets, satellites, factories, and launch facilities | | Growth drivers | AI adoption, enterprise deployment, and agent applications | Global connectivity, launch demand, and defense business | | Key risks | Inference costs, model competition, and profitability | Execution risk, capital investment, and project timelines | | Valuation focus | Revenue growth rate, gross margin, and platform value | Contract size, cash flow, and asset utilization |

In theory, OpenAI may find it easier to build a high-gross-margin model like a software platform, but the prerequisite is that unit inference costs can keep falling. Increasing users can drive subscription and API revenue growth, but it also increases consumption of compute resources, so the scale effect cannot be judged directly under traditional software company logic.

SpaceX also requires huge investment, but its launch services, satellite subscriptions, and government contracts have a more direct revenue link to specific infrastructure. Both companies need long-term capital, but the metrics the market uses to evaluate their investment returns are not entirely the same.

How will volatility after SpaceX’s IPO affect OpenAI’s IPO?

According to Gate market data, in the early period after SpaceX’s listing, it was briefly chased by capital, with its stock price peaking at about $225.64 per share. But then it quickly retreated, and in mid-July it fell to near or briefly below the $135 offer price. As Reuters reported, the stock’s pullback from its post-listing high had already been significant, reflecting that the market had started reassessing valuation, capital investment, and near-term profitability.

SpaceX’s performance could directly influence OpenAI’s offering strategy. If large tech IPOs struggle to maintain their offer price after listing, investors and underwriters may become more cautious about OpenAI’s $1 trillion target valuation. The company might also choose to reduce the offering size, lower the valuation, or wait for a more favorable market window.

This does not mean SpaceX’s decline would directly cause OpenAI to delay its IPO. The two companies have different businesses and investor structures, but SpaceX has already become a real-world case for whether “super IPOs” were priced too high in the market.

For OpenAI, SpaceX’s experience shows that the heat on the first day after listing is not the most important outcome. Public markets care more about whether the company can deliver revenue, profits, cash flow, and business progress over the subsequent quarters—showing that a high valuation is not just driven by scarcity and brand effects.

Why OpenAI may attract more attention from retail investors

Compared with SpaceX, OpenAI is closer to everyday consumers. ChatGPT is already used in office work, search, programming, learning, content creation, and enterprise knowledge management. Ordinary users can use the product directly and form personal judgments about the brand and functionality.

This consumer perception could be an important advantage for OpenAI’s IPO. Many investors do not understand rocket manufacturing, satellite capacity, or launch contracts, but they can intuitively feel how AI tools change the way they work and access information. As a result, OpenAI’s growth story may be easier for the mass market to understand.

OpenAI also connects with enterprise customers and developers simultaneously. ChatGPT subscriptions provide consumer revenue, while enterprise products and APIs enable the company to participate in more business workflows. This multi-layer distribution structure can help reinforce its platform attributes.

But knowing the product does not mean one can judge stock value. Users liking ChatGPT only proves that the product has demand; it does not directly show that OpenAI’s revenue quality, profit margins, and cash flow are sufficient to support a valuation close to $1 trillion.

What valuation risks will OpenAI face that differ from SpaceX?

OpenAI’s most prominent risk comes from compute costs. Large models require continuous consumption of GPUs, data centers, electricity, and network resources, and improving model capabilities may also require larger-scale training investment. As usage increases, inference costs rise as well, so revenue growth does not automatically translate into margin expansion.

Competitive pressure is also evident. Anthropic, Google, and open-source model providers continue to improve model capabilities, and enterprise customers are increasingly inclined to adopt a multi-model strategy. If performance gaps between different models narrow, price, safety, stability, and deployment flexibility will become more important procurement factors.

OpenAI’s governance structure also differs from that of typical public companies. After completing a structural adjustment in 2025, its for-profit business became OpenAI Group PBC and continues to be controlled by the OpenAI Foundation. This structure helps maintain a mission-driven approach, but future public-market investors may focus on ordinary shareholders’ voting rights, economic interests, and influence over major decisions.

These risks are different from the rocket testing, manufacturing progress, and satellite deployment risks SpaceX faces. OpenAI’s core question is whether model and platform usage can be converted into sustainable profits—not merely leading to greater compute demand.

Will OpenAI become the next most watched tech stock?

Judging by brand, valuation, industry position, and IPO scale, OpenAI is very likely to become one of the most watched tech stocks after SpaceX. ChatGPT has already formed a global consumer brand, and AI is one of the most important long-term themes in today’s capital markets—giving OpenAI a naturally high level of attention ahead of listing.

Factors supporting OpenAI as the next market focal point include:

• OpenAI has officially started preparing for its IPO;
• Its latest private valuation reached $852 billion;
• ChatGPT has a broad base of consumer and enterprise users;
• The market lacks a listed company that directly represents a leading model platform;
• AI capital expenditures and financing activity remain high.

However, “most watched” does not equal “best performing after listing.” SpaceX’s experience has shown that a super IPO may attract a large amount of capital in the early days, but high valuation, profit-taking, and performance-validation pressure may quickly weigh on the stock price.

Whether OpenAI can truly become a long-term core tech stock depends not only on ChatGPT’s user scale, but also on whether revenue growth can outpace cost growth, whether enterprise customers can form stable renewals, and whether the company can reduce unit inference costs.

Can OpenAI and SpaceX use the same valuation approach?

Both OpenAI and SpaceX can be called platform-style tech companies, but they are not suitable for using a completely identical valuation methodology. OpenAI is better analyzed from the perspective of revenue growth rate, sales multiple, gross margin, customer retention, and compute costs. SpaceX, on the other hand, needs to combine launch frequency, Starlink users, contract values, capital expenditures, and free cash flow.

If OpenAI receives a software-platform-style valuation, the market must believe its unit costs will decline as scale expands. If compute and infrastructure investment always grow in step with revenue, it may be closer to capital-intensive tech companies, and reasonable valuation multiples would correspondingly be lower.

SpaceX’s value depends more on whether its physical infrastructure can continuously expand and improve utilization. Rocket reuse, satellite network scale, and long-term contracts can improve capital returns, but project delays, test failures, and construction costs may also have a clear impact on cash flow.

What the two companies truly have in common is that their valuations are built on future market size. Future market size can provide imagination space for a high valuation, but it cannot replace validation through revenue, profits, and cash flow.

Before OpenAI’s IPO, what data does the market still need to see?

After OpenAI publishes its S-1, the market will for the first time get more complete financial and governance information. Compared with financing valuations and annualized revenue mentioned in media reports, the revenue composition, gross margin, cash burn, and long-term contract details in the formal prospectus are more likely to determine whether the market will accept its offering price.

Among the most worth watching data include:

• ChatGPT personal and enterprise subscription revenue;
• The proportion of total revenue coming from APIs and enterprise business;
• Growth in paid users and customer renewal rates;
• Gross margin and unit inference cost;
• Commitments for data center and chip procurement;
• Annual cash burn and free cash flow;
• Shareholding structure, voting rights, and Foundation control arrangements;
• IPO shares offered, price range, and final valuation.

The first batch of financial reports after SpaceX’s listing also has reference value. If the market can accept its near-term losses and long-term capital investment, it may increase investor tolerance for OpenAI’s high-growth, high-spend model. If SpaceX continues to face pressure due to valuation and costs, OpenAI’s offering conditions may face stricter scrutiny.

What market ways are available before OpenAI’s IPO?

OpenAI has not yet been formally listed, and ordinary brokerage accounts cannot directly buy its publicly traded stock. In the market, private equity funds, employee share trading, Pre-IPO products, and market tools linked to OpenAI’s valuation have already appeared, but their legal nature, liquidity, and holder rights may differ from future listed shares.

Gate Pre-IPOs has released OPENAI mirror notes. The subscription price corresponds to an implied market cap of about $895 billion, giving the market an entry point to observe changes in OpenAI’s valuation before it lists. This product is not OpenAI’s actual stock, and its implied market cap does not represent the company’s final IPO pricing.

When participating in pre-listing products, you need to pay attention to the product’s pricing basis, exit methods, liquidity, settlement mechanisms, and the risk of IPO delays. Whether OpenAI can successfully list and the final offering price still need to wait for the public S-1, underwriting arrangements, and results from institutional bookbuilding.

Summary

After SpaceX’s IPO, OpenAI has become one of the most watched candidates for the next super tech IPO. OpenAI has a global brand, rapidly growing commercial revenue, a broad consumer entry point, and a valuation expectation close to $1 trillion, and it has already secretly filed its IPO documents.

However, the stock-price volatility after SpaceX’s listing also shows that scarcity and market hype can only drive early pricing and cannot replace long-term fundamentals. OpenAI’s key question after listing will be whether revenue can keep growing, whether compute costs can decline, and whether the public market is willing to accept its high-capital-investment model over the long term.

Therefore, OpenAI is likely to become the next most watched tech stock after SpaceX, but whether it can become a stable long-term core asset still needs to be verified by the prospectus, financial data, and the company’s operating results after listing.

FAQ

Is OpenAI already a public company now?

OpenAI has not yet officially listed. It is still a private company, so ordinary brokerage accounts cannot directly buy its publicly traded stock.

Has OpenAI’s stock ticker already been determined?

OpenAI has not disclosed its official stock ticker. Any tickers used by third-party Pre-IPO products are not equal to the future publicly listed ticker.

Which is valued higher, OpenAI or SpaceX?

The valuations of the two companies will change with financing and public market prices. OpenAI’s latest confirmed private funding valuation is $852 billion, while SpaceX’s market capitalization after listing will fluctuate in real time with its stock price.

If SpaceX’s stock price pulls back, will it cause OpenAI’s IPO to be delayed?

A pullback in SpaceX’s stock price will not directly determine OpenAI’s IPO timeline, but it could affect market risk appetite for large tech IPOs and OpenAI’s offering valuation.

After OpenAI’s IPO, will it definitely enter major tech indices?

Whether OpenAI enters major indices depends on market capitalization, free-float share ratio, trading hours, and the relevant indices’ inclusion rules, and it will not be automatically determined at the time of the IPO.

Does the Gate OPENAI product equal future OpenAI stock?

Gate OPENAI is a mirror note, not the actual stock of the OpenAI company. Its pricing, holder rights, and settlement rules differ from future listed stock.