Is the Bitcoin bear market nearing its end? Why $69,000 has become a battleground for both bulls and bears

On July 17, 2026, according to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is quoted at about $63,050. In the past 24 hours, it has fallen 1.62%. Over the last 7 days, it has seen a modest rebound of 0.72%. Over the past year, it has fallen cumulatively by 45.66%. After months of range-bound downward movement, on-chain data is now releasing a series of noteworthy signals.

The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the “cycle peak buyers” who hold Bitcoin for 1-2 years—i.e., the investor cohort that entered between July 2024 and July 2025, with their cost range covering approximately $62,800 to $107,000—are showing signs that the scale of their realized losses is topping out and beginning to decline. Historically, this pattern has appeared multiple times before major bear market bottoms.

How realized loss metrics become a tool to predict bear market bottoms

Realized Loss measures the actual loss amount in U.S. dollars that investors incur when they sell Bitcoin. Unlike unrealized losses, realized losses reflect real sell-pressure being crystallized, rather than paper losses.

Glassnode chief research analyst Cryptovizart noted that the 30-day moving average of realized losses for the 1-2 year holder cohort is one of the on-chain indicators most worth watching when assessing whether a bear market is nearing its end. When the 30-day moving average of this indicator begins to cool down and turn downward, it often means that the market’s heaviest selling phase has already passed.

In this cycle, the cohort’s 30-day rolling realized losses once temporarily exceeded $75 million, before starting to reverse. This reversal pattern has occurred before the bear market lows in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Logically, when sell pressure from a core loss cohort reaches a peak and then begins to decay, it implies that participants who are most willing to sell are declining, and the supply-demand structure is gradually improving at the margin.

Why investors who bought around $107,000 have become the key observation window for this bear market

Between July 2024 and July 2025, Bitcoin’s price climbed steadily from about $62,800 to $107,000. Investors who kept buying throughout this process make up the “cycle peak buyers” cohort that holds for 1-2 years.

As Bitcoin’s price continues to fall from its peak, a substantial portion of positions held by this cohort are currently in unrealized losses. Glassnode data shows that long-term holders account for about 43% of the total realized losses on-chain, and the daily realized loss peak reached $280 million, the highest level since December 2022 (after the FTX collapse).

Every bout of panic selling from this cohort brings the market closer to exhausting the available sellers. When realized losses at the 30-day moving average level fall back from their peak, historical patterns suggest that the most intense selling phase is usually over. Therefore, whether investors who bought near $107,000 stop cutting positions at scale directly determines how persistent the overhead supply pressure remains in the market.

What does Bitcoin being below key cost benchmarks for five consecutive months mean?

Glassnode’s “The Week On-Chain” weekly report states that Bitcoin has been trading for about five months below the “True Market Mean” (about $76,600) and below the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” (about $72,200). This is one of the longest-duration records for Bitcoin’s “deep value zone” in history.

The true market mean represents the average cost of the active investor cohort, while the short-term holder cost basis reflects the average purchase price of entrants over the most recent 155 days. When price remains below these two key benchmarks for an extended period, it means that most short-term participants are in unrealized losses, and any rebound may run into sell pressure from investors breaking even.

However, from another angle, the longer price stays in the deep value zone, the more thoroughly less-strong holders get pushed out. Historical data shows that such periods typically require continuous time of more than six months before meaningful recovery signals appear. The current five-month duration is already approaching the time window associated with historical bottoms.

How multiple on-chain indicators can be used to comprehensively judge the market cycle position

In addition to the realized loss indicator for 1-2 year holders, multiple on-chain indicators are forming a set of corroborating bottom signals.

Long-term holder capitulation indicators show periodic turning points. Glassnode’s latest weekly report analysis indicates that long-term holder capitulation— the main source of sell pressure in this cycle—reached a cycle peak two weeks ago and has started to decline. This indicator measures the amount of Bitcoin surrendered per day by long-term holders, and it is currently in the first decline phase of this cycle.

The realized profit/loss ratio remains below 1.0, indicating that total realized losses exceed profits. Historically, this condition often lines up with the market bottom area.

The UTXO profit/loss ratio has also entered extreme historical levels. As of July 15, 2026, this indicator has entered the intervals that have appeared at every major market bottom since 2016. More Bitcoin is in a loss state rather than a profit state—approximately 10.83 million BTC are underwater, while 9.22 million are in profit.

Spot ETF fund outflows are slowing down. The 30-day average fund outflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has shrunk from the early-June peak of $193 million per day to $89 million per day. Although overall demand has not yet recovered, the slowdown in outflows itself is a marginal improvement signal.

These indicators point to the same implication: the market may be in the later stage of building a bottom structure, but more confirmation signals are still needed before concluding that the trend has been completely reversed.

Why $69,000 has become the core battleground for bulls and bears

$69,000 carries multiple meanings in the current market structure, and this is also the core reason Glassnode defines it as the “next major battlefield.”

First, it is the total cost basis of short-term holders. According to Glassnode’s Week 28 on-chain report, the overall cost benchmark for short-term holders is at $69,000. This means that at this price level, many recent buyers will return to breakeven. The report notes: “Touching this level for the first time is likely to trigger a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are precisely those who are about to get back to even.”

Second, this price level coincides with Bitcoin’s historical all-time high in November 2021. $69,000 is the historical record high from the prior cycle’s bull market. From a technical analysis perspective, the peak of the prior bull market often forms an important psychological resistance or support area.

Third, whether this level is gained or lost determines the direction of the market structure’s evolution. In its weekly report, Glassnode said: “A convincing recovery of this level will provide room for a rebound; if it is met with resistance, the range-bound pattern will remain unchanged.” If the market can effectively break through and hold above $69,000, it may open up space to move toward $75,000 to $80,000; if an upside attempt fails, the range-bound oscillation pattern will continue.

As of July 17, Bitcoin is around $63,566, about 8% below the $69,000 level. This gap suggests that both bulls and bears still have ample room to maneuver.

If $69,000 is lost, where is the downside support?

Although $69,000 is the most closely watched level right now, the market still needs to consider scenarios in which this level cannot be defended.

Glassnode pointed out that if the $69,000 level is not recovered, realized price (Realized Price) of about $53,000 to $55,000 will become a reasonable area the market may seek as the next bottom. Realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all holders on the Bitcoin network, and it is one of the most important global support references used in on-chain analysis.

During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin briefly fell below its realized price, and only afterward did it begin the final recovery rally that broke through the $100,000 mark. Therefore, the $53,000 to $55,000 range can be regarded as the market’s “last line of defense.” Historically, when price reaches this area, it often means that extreme value opportunities coexist with market panic.

What conditions are still needed to confirm that the market has repaired

Although on-chain data has released many positive signals, there is still distance from confirming that the trend reversal has occurred.

Spot demand has not yet fully returned. Glassnode analysts said that to sustain any rebound beyond the $69,000 threshold, stronger spot demand is still needed. Relying solely on derivatives positioning is not enough to support a sustainable recovery.

ETF flows have not yet returned to stable net inflows. Even though the outflow pace has slowed, overall demand has not recovered to a level sufficient to push price through key resistance.

Long-term holder capitulation has not completely ended. Although the indicator has already declined from its peak, it remains at a high level and has not cooled down as quickly as it did at earlier bear market bottoms.

Uncertainty remains in the macro environment. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar trend, and global liquidity conditions will continue to be key factors affecting Bitcoin’s price.

Overall, on-chain data suggests that the market may be forming a bottom structure, but confirmation signals—including sustained spot buying, stable net ETF inflows, and further easing of sell pressure from long-term holders—still need time to be verified.

Summary

Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that the realized losses of “cycle peak buyers” who hold Bitcoin for 1-2 years began to decline after the 30-day moving average broke above $75 million—a pattern that has appeared multiple times historically before major bear market bottoms. The long-term holder capitulation indicator has topped out and begun to fall back, and a cross-dimensional set of on-chain indicators is forming a corroborating bottom signal combination.

With $69,000 overlapping the cost benchmark for short-term holders and the historical high from 2021, it has become the core price level in the current bulls-and-bears contest. Reclaiming this level will open room for a rebound; if it is rejected, the range-bound pattern will persist. If this level is lost, the realized price area of $53,000 to $55,000 will become the next key support reference.

The market may be in the later stage of building a bottom, but final trend confirmation still depends on sustained recovery in spot demand and stable reflow of institutional capital.

FAQ

Q: Why can Glassnode’s realized loss indicators predict bear market bottoms?

Realized loss measures the actual dollar loss investors realize when they sell. When the 30-day moving average of realized losses for the 1-2 year investor cohort—that is, buyers near the prior bull market peak—reaches a peak and begins to decline, historical data shows that it often signals that the most severe selling phase has already passed and the market is nearing the bottom.

Q: What is the current status of investors who bought around $107,000?

Investors who bought between July 2024 and July 2025, with their cost range covering approximately $62,800 to $107,000, have a substantial portion of positions in unrealized losses as Bitcoin’s price continues to fall from its peak. Recently, the cohort’s realized losses have shown signs of topping out and turning down on the 30-day moving average level.

Q: Why is $69,000 so important?

$69,000 has three meanings: first, it is the total cost benchmark for short-term holders, where many recent buyers return to breakeven; second, it overlaps with Bitcoin’s historical all-time high from November 2021; third, the gain or loss of this level determines whether the market enters a rebound channel or continues with range-bound oscillation.

Q: Has Bitcoin already confirmed a bottom?

On-chain data suggests the market may be forming a bottom structure, but more confirmation signals are still needed. Spot demand has not fully returned, ETF funds have not yet restored stable net inflows, and sell pressure from long-term holders—although it has fallen from its peak—has not completely disappeared. Market repair still requires time to be validated.

Q: If $69,000 cannot be broken through, where is the downside support?

If the $69,000 level is not recovered, realized price of about $53,000 to $55,000 will become a reasonable area where the market may seek its next bottom. This price level represents the average acquisition cost of all holders on the Bitcoin network and is an important global support reference in on-chain analysis.