The real disagreement within the Federal Reserve has shifted from “when to cut rates” to “whether to raise them again”

First a reminder: the message in the image is not new news from today—it’s an old story from July 17, 2025. At the time, Federal Reserve Governor Waller clearly advocated for a 25-basis-point rate cut in July, saying that economic momentum and the job market were cooling, and that tariff-driven inflation was more likely to be a one-off effect.

But a year later, the situation is completely reversed.

As of July 2026, U.S. inflation is still clearly above the 2% target, and Waller’s latest remarks are no longer about “cutting rates immediately.” Instead, he warns that if core inflation continues to stay elevated, the Fed may need to raise rates further in the near term. Dallas Fed President Logan is even more direct, saying that the current policy stance is still not restrictive enough and that interest rates should be adjusted upward moderately.

While the market has not fully accepted the hawkish message from officials, the pricing direction has already changed. Currently, most traders believe the July meeting will very likely keep rates unchanged, with only about a 10% chance of a rate hike—rate cuts are essentially not on the table in the short term.

This means the market is not dealing with a simple “rate-hike negative, rate-cut positive.” Instead, it’s an ongoing data-driven game.

If inflation continues to cool, risk assets may get some breathing room. But as long as energy prices, geopolitical conditions, and services inflation start to rise again, the Fed will have reason to keep rates high—or even tighten policy again. What’s truly worth watching isn’t what any official says today, but whether the upcoming core inflation, employment, and consumption data can continuously prove that price pressures are easing.

For both U.S. stocks and the crypto market, keeping rates unchanged at the July meeting is not automatically good news. The longer high rates stay, the slower liquidity will return. Right now, it feels more like an observation period before the market re-prices the policy direction. Price action may whipsaw, but the real big picture still depends on what the data reveal. #夏日创作营 #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储 @Gate 广场