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Fourfold resonance is bearish, but AIX makes me wait a little longer
BTC price now is $62,915, down about 3.3% in the past 24 hours. ETH $1,831, SOL $74.5. Fear and Greed Index is 27, panic is spreading.
The deterministic anchor points for all four coins are bearish—all are 3/3 bearish votes: BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE. All on the 4H timeframe confirm a downtrend. The sentiment Alpha signal is at the Critical level, issuing a bearish warning. Across the higher timeframe direction, on-chain structure, and sentiment, the triple confluence points to the same direction: down.
But AIX’s decision today is: wait.
Why? The mid-term hasn’t caught up.
BTC’s 30-minute RSI has already been hammered to 29.1, entering the oversold zone. On the 5-minute timeframe, there are clear signs of rebound—KDJ forms a golden cross, and the J value jumps to 91.6. ETH and SOL are similar: the 30-minute timeframe has a complete bearish structure, but the 5-minute timeframe is rebounding or ranging, and it hasn’t provided a valid entry confirmation signal.
What are the core conditions to short on entry? When the mid-term RSI crosses back down from above 65, together with KDJ forming a death cross in the overbought zone. Right now, the higher timeframe has already finished the first wave of the drop, while the mid-term is rebounding at low levels—still not at 65, and not forming a death cross. Chasing short here means you’re shorting into oversold.
It’s like a scout reports enemy ahead (higher timeframe bearish), but in the binoculars you still can’t see the target yet (mid-term signals not confirmed). If you know the direction but don’t wait for the timing, you still end up taking losses.
So today’s choice is: wait for the rebound.
Wait for BTC to rebound to the $63,500-$64,000 range, for ETH to rebound to around $1,850, and for the 5-minute RSI to return above 60 before observing whether a death cross confirmation signal appears. Only then will the risk-reward be reasonable—stop loss above the prior high, with targets at $62,000 and even $61,000.
How to act next?
On direction, stay firmly bearish. 4H downtrend + all-bearish anchors + Alpha Critical warning—triple confirmation—no longs.
On timing, wait for the rebound. If BTC reaches $63,500-$64,000 and ETH around $1,850, watch the 5-minute RSI and KDJ signals.
Don’t move in the middle zone. If you short at $62,900, the stop loss is hard to place and the risk-reward isn’t worth it.
If it directly breaks below $62,000, don’t chase—wait for a pullback and confirmation before entering.
The market has already given the direction; the rest is waiting for a suitable price. If the direction is right but the timing is wrong, you’ll still lose money.
AIX is waiting, and I’m also waiting. No rush.