BIT Trading Time: During BIT trading, a mid-month BTC pullback of 5% or an opening as the three major U.S. stock index futures plunge; the after-hours session sees storage and semiconductors continue to decline.

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$65,000 repeatedly failed, with a large buy-wall near $61,000

Bitcoin today fell to around $62,700 and has already broken below the key support zone of $63,000 to $64,000 that many traders had been watching.

Daniel YU, Head of Asset Management at BIT, said that the crypto market failed to carry forward the rebound momentum after the US June CPI cooled. Bitcoin briefly returned above $65,000 on July 15, then shifted into consolidation, mainly because concentrated declines in the AI and storage sectors suppressed overall risk appetite; after deeper linkage between crypto assets and US equities via the ETF channel, weakness in the Nasdaq is likely to transmit to Bitcoin as well.

At present, sentiment in the derivatives market is tight. Greeks.live shows that today there is $1.2 billion worth of BTC options expiring, with the biggest pain point at $63,000. Coinglass shows that near $65,000, there are still $18.3 million in sell orders for Bitcoin, while below, near $61,000 to $62k, there are $15 million in buy orders providing support.

In addition, trader Killa pointed out a key historical anomaly pattern: after the 14th day of each month, Bitcoin has a very high probability of experiencing at least a 5% pullback. In the past 12 times, 11 times saw about a 5% retracement after the 14th day. If the pattern continues, later this month the market could see $60,000 to $62,000.

In addition, BIT’s weekly report, On Target, analyzed that since February Bitcoin has been in a declining A-B-C wave structure, and the decline of the C wave has already begun. Although the bear market may be nearing its end, risks of inflation rebounding are increasing due to the oil price rebound triggered by the Iran conflict and the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, Waller. In the short term, the market lacks confidence in further upside. At present, traders are closely watching liquidity support around $62,000; if that area is lost, market focus will shift to a wider liquidation band around $58k.

Ethereum has not broken the downward trend line within the year; $1,800 must hold

Ethereum is performing relatively stronger, returning to the $1,750 to $1,900 range and attempting to flip the prior resistance into support. Daniel, Head of Asset Management at BIT, said that Japan reclassified cryptocurrencies as “financial assets” and lowered related tax burdens. Coupled with ETH spot ETFs seeing net inflows on 8 out of the past 10 trading days, it supports ETH’s relative strength.

Bull traders Daan Crypto Trades said that ETH has turned $1,750 into a support level; if it holds, the target would look toward $2,100. CJ also believes that after a pullback confirms, bulls may challenge the $2,000 to $2,100 range. However, market disagreement remains huge. Mizer warned that ETH may fall back to $1,600 to $1,650, while Mister Crypto emphasized that ETH has not broken the downward trend line within the year and that the current rebound may only be a lower high; in the short term, it still depends on whether $1,800 and $1,750 can be held.

Key takeaways today:

• Native Markets reminds that the USDH official website swap entry will be closed on July 17

• GRVT Airdrop registration is open, with a deadline of July 17

• YZY (YZY) will unlock about 20.83 million tokens on July 17, worth approximately $6.1 million

• deBridge (DBR) will unlock about 618 million tokens on July 17, worth approximately $10.1 million

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, ETH, DRV, XRP, B3

• Bitcoin spot ETF: +$79.15 million, sustained 3 days of net inflows

• Ethereum spot ETF: -$28.0413 million

**Top 100 coins by market cap today: biggest gainers: **BDX up 5.6%, STABLE up 5.4%, CRO up 4.1%, PI up 3.5%, MNT up 2.9%.

US stock index futures remain under pressure. Crypto concept stocks fall across the board, and strong AI earnings fail to work

US stock index futures remained under pressure during Asian trading. Nasdaq 100 futures briefly fell by about 1.61%, S&P 500 index futures declined by 0.8%, and Dow Jones index futures dropped by 0.55%.

BIT’s after-hours data shows that in US stock after-hours trading, the semiconductor sector fell across the board. The 3x long semiconductor ETF fell 10.38%, Mavelyr Technology fell 4.51%, and AMD fell 3.86%. The hottest global storage ETF, DRAM, fell 5.43%, and Micron and SanDisk each dropped 4.58% and 5.64%, respectively. SK hynix fell 1%. Tech giants including Intel and Nvidia continued to decline, while Apple was the lone winner in after-hours. Netflix fell more than 9% due to third-quarter revenue and profit guidance below expectations; SpaceX fell 4.32% because Starship’s major test flight was aborted due to some engines not firing. Intuitive Surgical fell nearly 10%; although Q2 results beat expectations, investors expressed concerns about the company’s future growth.

In Thursday’s weak US stocks, the selloff was not broad-based diffusion, but concentrated in the most crowded sectors previously—AI, semiconductors, and storage.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.3% on the day, down 22% from the June peak, entering a technical bear market. TSMC’s Q2 gross margin reached 67.7%, and it raised its capital expenditure guidance to $60 billion to $64 billion, but the market is instead worried about overly large AI spending and a too-long payback cycle.

Daniel YU, Head of Asset Management at BIT, said the concentrated selloff in AI and storage is offsetting the positive impact from the cooling CPI. The storage stocks’ decline came from triple pressure: profit-taking after SK hynix’s listing; supply concerns sparked by China’s ChangXin Memory plans for an IPO of about $8.6 billion; and controversy over the AI payback cycle triggered by TSMC raising capex.

Looking at specific names: SK hynix ADR fell more than 13%, SanDisk fell more than 12%, Micron fell more than 5%, Western Digital fell more than 9%, and Seagate Technology fell 10%. Large-cap tech stocks also generally pulled back: Nvidia fell 2.40%, Meta fell 2.46%, and Google A fell 4.44%.

BofA’s survey shows that 82% of fund managers believe “going long global semiconductors” is the most crowded trade, and the proportion viewing an “AI bubble” as the biggest tail risk rose from 28% to 45%. Goldman Sachs data also shows that hedge funds’ exposure to AI-themed stocks has fallen to the lowest level this year; the recent decline looks more like a position adjustment rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals.

According to BIT US Stocks data, crypto concept stocks fell across the board. Strategy fell 3.53%, STRC fell 2.69%, Robinhood fell 8.24%, Coinbase fell 4.02%, and Circle fell 7.69%. JPMorgan said Strategy increased its cash reserve from $2.55 billion to $3.0 billion, covering about 20 months of preferred stock dividends, which is a positive signal. If reserves rise further, it could ease market concerns that Strategy may be forced to sell Bitcoin. Coinbase is being watched due to Base ecosystem Meme hype, while Robinhood has filed with the SEC to set up an employee investment fund. For miners: with Bitcoin falling to around $62,700 alongside a pullback in AI compute valuation, they remain under pressure in the short term; Hut 8 and Bitdeer both fell more than 10%.

Japan and Korea chip leaders are lagging; AI deleveraging continues to spread

The Asia-Pacific market continued the selloff in US tech stocks. Japanese equities led the declines, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index briefly down more than 5% intraday, while technology heavyweights such as Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and SoftBank Group came under pressure.

Japan’s storage giant Kioxia hit its daily limit down intraday, once falling 15.55%, cutting its market value by half compared with its June peak. Besides global storage stocks falling, the company also faced impact after losing US patent litigation and being ordered to pay compensation.

South Korea’s stock market is closed today for Constitution Day, but the KOSPI had already fallen from a recent high of 9,385 points to 6,800 points, a drop of more than 27%. Korean regulators tightened single-stock leveraged ETFs, preparing to pause new launches of leveraged ETFs for individual stocks, and raised the minimum margin requirement from 10 million won to 30 million won. For each single-stock leveraged trade, the maximum purchase per time is limited to 20 shares, indicating regulators are cooling down overheated tech trading.

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon criticized the government for allowing leveraged derivative products to hit the stock market. He noted that this year the KOSPI index has triggered a temporary limit mechanism for programmed trading 37 times, exceeding the full-year 26 records during the 2008 global financial crisis.

SK Group chairman Choi Tae-won tried to stabilize market expectations. He said memory chip demand still shows exponential growth, and that recent declines are more of a pullback after over-anticipation; long-term demand will continue to support SK hynix and Samsung Electronics’ stock prices.

Hong Kong and A-share tech stocks were also dragged down by global AI deleveraging. In Hong Kong, Southbound 2x long Samsung/Hynix dropped more than 20% each. Zhipu (智谱) fell more than 17% at one point due to competitive pressure and related criticisms.

What to watch next:

• July 17 to 20: Shanghai WAIC World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Focus on domestic large models, robots, AI chips, and AI governance policies. If industrial support signals are released, it may boost AI applications and Chinese-concept tech stocks; if the market continues to worry about investment returns, the positive impact may be weakened.

• July 18 to 19: AGI Summit SF 2026 in San Francisco. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Nvidia, and others will appear. If major model releases or commercialization progress are announced, it may ease the AI selloff in US stocks; if it remains mostly about long-term visions, the market may continue to question AI capital expenditure.