#夏日创作营 Trump holds a private meeting with senators today, pushing the Clarity bill! Bitcoin dips back to 64.4k, while Ethereum climbs 11% week-on-week to outperform the broader market—will a reversal be imminent?

The euphoria from CPI and PPI cooling down together lasted only two days before the crypto market slid back under the double pressure of profit-taking and renewed geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin pulled back from a one-month high of $65,500 to above $64k, while Ethereum saw a synchronized retracement. But in the brief lull, Trump will meet senators today and personally push the Clarity bill through—this legislative standoff may be the key variable determining the late-July trading direction. As of July 17, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the $64,400–$64,500 range, down about 0.7%–1.1% over 24 hours; Ethereum (ETH) is at $1,870–$1,880, down about 1.7%–2.5% over 24 hours, but still up about 11% for the week, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 27, moving from “extreme fear” to “panic,” but market sentiment has not truly recovered yet.

I. Market snapshot: CPI tailwind fades, both coins pull back to key levels
On July 17, after two days of sharp gains, the crypto market entered a pullback and consolidation phase. Bitcoin fell in tandem with U.S. stocks on Thursday, down about 1.5% from the three-week high it hit the day before, and is currently oscillating near $64,500. Earlier, U.S. June CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, driving a brief rally in crypto assets and U.S. stocks. But after that, tech stocks were hit by selloffs, and the crypto market faced similar pressure. BTC had surged to $65,500 on Wednesday, setting a one-month high, but profit-taking quickly followed the spike. Korean media data showed Bitcoin slipped to $63,762 at one point in the morning, down about 1.69%. Ethereum’s drop was slightly larger than Bitcoin’s, at around $1,870, down about 2.49% over 24 hours. However, Ethereum is still up about 11% for the week, far outperforming Bitcoin. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $96 million over the first three days of this week. BlackRock’s funds absorbed most of the capital, and new demand on Robinhood Chain also boosted ETH performance. Open interest fell from the five-week high of 14.45 million ETH touched on Wednesday to 14.35 million ETH, as some longs exited the market proactively. As for altcoins, Solana is down 1.30%, Dogecoin is down 0.60%, and XRP is flat. Hyperliquid (HYPE) plunged 9.06% to $61.03, pressured by structural selling from approximately 1% monthly token unlocks (about $645 million). Total crypto market cap is about $2.18 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share remains at 58.11%.

II. Three drivers behind the pullback: profit-taking, a “wait” from the Fed, and geopolitics flaring again
Why did the rally cool off so quickly after CPI and PPI both fell? Three factors hit in the same window.
Driver 1: Profit-taking after the spike
After Bitcoin hit a one-month high of $65,500 on Wednesday, profit-taking poured in. On-chain data shows long-term and short-term holders both sold around $65,000. Bitcoin accumulated a large amount of short-term profit-taking above $65,000; once price reached that zone, selling pressure concentrated and released. Data indicates that changes in derivatives positioning show the current decline is mostly the concentrated closing of previously bullish positions, not a brand-new large-scale short.
Driver 2: Fed “job not done” douses rate-cut hopes
At a House hearing, Fed Chair Waller gave a clear warning: “Some people may say, ‘The job is done’ based on this morning’s data, but that’s not my view. There is no tolerance for persistently high inflation.” Even though CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, Waller clearly said investors should not be overly optimistic based on a single data print. Polymarket shows the probability of a rate hike in July has crashed from 34% to 6.7%, but Waller’s hawkish comments still suppress risk appetite.
Driver 3: The U.S.-Iran conflict heats up again
On Thursday, Iran carried out attacks on U.S. military bases within Gulf neighboring countries, while the U.S. continued airstrike operations. As geopolitical risk rises, global risk sentiment is suppressed and crypto and U.S. stock futures move weaker in sync. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $425 million in outflows in a single day due to this impact. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, ended the prior streak of eight straight weeks of outflows. Notably, Bitcoin spot ETFs had recorded nearly $289 million in net inflows over the first two days of this week, but the geopolitical shock interrupted the rebound momentum.

III. Today’s focus: Trump meets senators, and the Clarity bill enters the final sprint
Beneath the surface of the price pullback, the regulatory battle is entering its most critical stage. The Block reports that the U.S. Congress is pushing the Clarity bill into the final sprint. On Thursday afternoon (today in Beijing time), President Trump will meet with Republican senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, seeking to have Trump signal support for the bill’s moral/ethics provisions. Republican representative William Timmons of South Carolina said: “This is one of the president’s top priorities, and it’s a bipartisan topic in Congress… We will definitely get it done.”
However, the biggest obstacle comes from Democrats insisting on the ethics provisions. Trump’s recently disclosed financial report shows his crypto-related income is as high as $140 million, accounting for more than half of his total 2025 reported income of $2.2 billion. Democratic senator Ruben Gallego said clearly: “Without strong ethics provisions, there will be no Democratic votes.” Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association, warned that adding amendments tied to prediction markets could become a “poison pill.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune hopes to complete the Senate vote before the August 7 recess. But even if the Senate passes it, the bill still needs to go back to the House for further review, and the overall timetable may slip by several more months. Galaxy Research previously lowered the probability of passage in 2026 to 50%. The outcome of this meeting will largely determine whether the bill can clear before the August recess.

IV. ETF flows diverge: Bitcoin outflows, Ethereum attracts inflows
This week saw a rare split in ETF fund flows. Due to geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $425 million outflows on Thursday. Although the first two days of this week had seen nearly $289 million in net inflows, the geopolitical shock interrupted the rebound.
JPMorgan said spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows have been highly volatile over recent weeks: after inflows last week, they flipped to outflows this week. Ethereum ETFs have shown stronger resilience. Over the first three days of this week, they saw inflows of $96 million, with most of the capital absorbed by BlackRock’s funds. Ethereum ETFs ended the prior run of eight weeks of outflows, as institutional funds rotate from Bitcoin toward Ethereum. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has recently hit new highs in both inflow volume and trading volume. This divergence helps explain why Ethereum’s weekly gains (11%) significantly outpaced Bitcoin’s—institutional capital is re-pricing Ethereum’s valuation.

V. Key price levels and liquidation warning lines
Bitcoin: $64,000 becomes the short-term line between bulls and bears
BTC is currently ranging between $64,400 and $64,500, down about $1,000 from the $65,500 peak.
Key support: $64,000–$64,200: the former key resistance before breakout has turned into support—holding it keeps the long-side structure intact
$63,500–$63,700: the 200-week moving average zone and also the launch point of the recent rebound
$61,183: if it breaks, the liquidation strength of accumulated long positions on major CEXs will reach $64k
Key resistance: $65,500–$66,000: short positions are concentrated here; a breakout could trigger a short-squeeze rally
$66,878: if it breaks out, the liquidation strength of accumulated short positions on major CEXs will reach $21.8k
The liquidation heatmap shows shorts are concentrated between $65,500 and $66,000, about 3% away from the current market price. If price breaks above $65,600, it could trigger short liquidations in that area and potentially accelerate a move toward $67,000. Conversely, if it falls below $61,183, it would trigger long liquidations at the $1 billion level.

Ethereum: $1,870 becomes the short-term trading battleground
ETH is currently in the $1,870–$1,880 range, with the 24-hour low touching $1,860.
Key support: $1,850–$1,870: recent demand zone—if defended, the rebound structure remains intact
$1,817–$1,849: a demand zone where buyers keep defending, forming a potential higher-low structure
Key resistance: $1,900: a psychological level; a breakout would open upside room
$1,936: the 24-hour high; reclaiming it needs sufficient volume/energy
ETH remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298.74, suggesting that a higher-timeframe downside trend has not been broken yet. But Ethereum has experienced a more brutal collapse, which also explains why its rebound momentum may be stronger.

VI. Outlook: three major events will determine the direction for the second half of July
Entering the second half of July, three key variables will determine where the crypto market goes:
Variable 1: Results of Trump’s meeting with senators (today).
This is the most important short-term catalyst. If Trump signals support for the ethics provisions, Democrats may loosen their stance, and the bill could have a chance to pass before the August recess; if the two sides remain deadlocked, legislation may be pushed back to September or even after the midterm elections.
Variable 2: The July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
Even though the probability of a rate hike in July has fallen to 6.7%, Waller’s hawkish stance implies the door to a September hike is still not closed. The dot plot’s direction will decide the policy tone for the second half of the year.
Variable 3: The direction of the U.S.-Iran situation.
Geopolitical conflict is still escalating. If conditions worsen further, oil prices may keep climbing and inflation expectations could pick up again. Bitcoin ETF outflows have already hit $425 million in a single day due to this, and geopolitical risk remains the biggest uncertainty hanging over the market.

VII. Trading advice: don’t panic on pullbacks, don’t chase greedily
For short-term traders, the current market is in a pullback and consolidation phase after CPI tailwinds fade, and the direction is still unclear.
BTC strategy: Watch how $64,000–$64,200 support performs. If price stabilizes in this zone and the Trump meeting releases a positive signal, you could cautiously participate in the rebound with a small position size, targeting $65,500–$66,000. $65,500–$66,000 is a dense zone of short positions; a breakout may trigger a short-squeeze. If it effectively breaks below $63,500, be alert to the risk of further downside toward $61,183.
ETH strategy: Watch the $1,850–$1,870 support zone. Continued inflows into the Ethereum ETFs provide fundamental support; a pullback into the support zone that then stabilizes is a better low-buy opportunity. Resistance above lies at $1,900–$1,936.
For mid- to long-term investors
There are positive macro changes—CPI and PPI have both come in below expectations consecutively, the probability of a July rate hike has fallen to 6.7%, and Ethereum ETFs have ended eight weeks of outflows. On the regulatory front, Trump personally drives the Clarity bill today, and the odds of a legislative breakthrough are rising. The $62,000–$64,000 region still holds value for staged allocation from a long-term perspective. The result of today’s Trump-senator meeting will be the key signal for whether regulatory tailwinds can actually land.
Recommendation: Maintain patience until the outcome of the meeting becomes clear, and gradually build positions with small sizing and a slow pace.

Core risk warnings:
Uncertainty around the Clarity bill: if the ethics provisions deadlock cannot be broken, the bill could be delayed until after the midterm elections
Geopolitical conflict escalates: the U.S.-Iran conflict is still escalating, and geopolitical risk premia may further lift Bitcoin
ETF volatility: $425 million outflows in a single day, and institutional capital flows are unstable
Waller’s hawkish stance: even if CPI cools, Waller still emphasizes “the job is not done,” and the probability of a September rate hike must not be ignored!