2026.7.17 10:21 AM BTC/ETH/XAU/AI analysis

That night, the market raided $353 million; 89,492 people went bankrupt. U.S. stocks kept seeing consecutive deep selloffs—just in the first week of July, the AI sector saw nearly $20 billion in capital exited. The acceleration in selloff and exit from last week to this week will only be worse. So recently, after stopping out from ORCL, I haven’t been trading U.S. stocks; the blue-chip SNDK has also plunged 40% in half a month, and it hasn’t bottomed yet!

Net selling of U.S. tech stocks hit the biggest record in 10 years (z-score at -4.0). AI data centers consume extreme amounts of electricity and water—this may push up residential electricity prices, increase grid pressure, and cause environmental pollution (noise, effects on air/water quality). Polls show about half of Americans worry AI will cause family members to lose their jobs; 71% are concerned about permanent job losses (white-collar work is affected more).

BTC
Support: 60,450 / 58,450
Resistance (tentative): 65,850-67,135 / 71,000

This resistance level/zone hasn’t changed for nearly a week. The other night the high briefly touched 75,589; now it has pulled back to around 63,450 and is consolidating. With the U.S.-Iran conflict continuously escalating and the backdrop of a massive global capital exit from AI, you can say it’s extremely resilient!

Last night’s live stream said the 1h/2h chart had a short-term rebound trend for shorts—shorting the rebound could work, but it’s weak: the rebound didn’t reach the short zone. In a moment when global finance is falling hard, BTC can’t really show independent strength—another consolidation that takes time is here again!

ETH
Support: 1,635 / 1,560
Resistance (tentative): 2,000

For the second coin, I already hinted at reducing spot holdings by 30%-40% in the 1,900-2,000 range. If 1,835 can’t hold, reduce spot by another 30%, and then look to find opportunities to buy back at lower levels to refill your position.

XAU/XAG: last night, I bought a small amount of XAG; it also got dragged down by the U.S.-Iran conflict. Be sure to strictly follow the stop-loss! If tonight doesn’t give an opportunity to hit take-profit, and there’s a chance to break even, then exit first—but this weekend’s trade!

U.S. stock SNDK has completely crashed—down 40%+ in half a month. In the live stream, once it broke below 1,400 it was basically formed; now it has already pulled back to 1,355. Given tonight is Friday and there’s some demand for a weekly-K-style repair, tonight may have a quick snapback chance. This leg is only enough to congratulate those shorting above 2,100!

Trading advice does not constitute any investment basis: massive AI capital is fleeing, the U.S.-Iran conflict is intensifying, inflation could potentially return, and rate hikes are back on the agenda—this year is destined to be a difficult one. This kind of difficulty isn’t the same as 2020/2022. In 2020, it was the difficulty from the pandemic and policies; in 2022, it was the pain from rate hikes—those were relatively straightforward. This year’s difficulty has too many external factors: loose “old locks” without gatekeeping, runaway localized conflicts—these are all factors that are stirring up chaos in the financial market. As the classic line goes: the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish!

Protect your principal, and wait for an unprecedented opportunity to go all-in on spot. Wealth reorganization and redistribution are hidden in the moment with the greatest risk—your own big wealth increase is achieved in such major changes!

#夏日创作营