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The probability of a positive outcome from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks has dropped significantly

2026-07-17 01:28:33

ME News message: On April 26 (UTC+8), market forecasts show that in the event “Could U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting in...?”, the probability of the “Yes” option for “U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks before April 28, 2026?” fell from 68.5% to 6.5%, a drop of 62.0 percentage points in a single day.

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