7.17 early-morning XAU market analysis — Shiyuan’s view

In the short term, bearish pressure dominates. The 4000 level has been broken—don’t rush to bottom-fish. First, see whether 3970 can hold!

Current price around 3988, already breaking below the 4000 psychological level, with a single-day drop of over 1.6%, which qualifies as a “breakdown sell-off.”
The 4-hour chart shows that gold has been trending down steadily from the 4106 high, forming a “descending channel.” The most recent candlestick is a bearish candle with a real body, indicating heavy sell pressure and that bulls don’t have the strength to resist.
The first support below is at 3970, and the second support is at 3940.
If 3970 can’t hold, price may accelerate toward 3940 and even lower.

Overhead resistance: the first rebound resistance is at 4020, and the strong resistance is at 4060. To push back up, it must first hold firmly above 4020.

Recommendations
Traders with long positions stuck: If you bought above 4050, you’re definitely feeling the pain now. Don’t stubbornly hold—wait for a rebound to around 4000-4020, and it’s recommended to reduce exposure and cut losses first. Once there is an effective break below 3970, you must exit to avoid getting trapped deeper.
Holders of short positions: The trend is down—hold steady! You can take partial profit around 3980 first, and set the rest with a breakeven stop-loss, aiming for 3940 and possibly even lower.
Those trying to bottom-fish: Keep your hands off! This is not the bottom—it’s a “downtrend continuation.” Wait for it to range-trade around 3970 for a few days without falling, then consider entering. $BTC $ETH