Market Analysis —— “After the Bitcoin Halving, Market Logic Is Quietly Changing”

Bitcoin’s halving in 2024 has already passed more than a year. Entering 2026, we can clearly feel that the market’s operating logic is different from before. The old simple rule of “halving leads to a sharp surge” no longer seems as reliable. In its place is a more complex, more institutionalized game.

First, the impact of macro liquidity outweighs the halving itself. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, the U.S. Dollar Index trend, and geopolitical conflicts—these traditional financial-market variables are increasingly affecting the crypto market. For example, whenever the Fed signals rate-cut expectations, risk assets rise and the crypto market bounces too; conversely, once inflation data comes in above expectations, coin prices face pressure. This shows that Bitcoin is being gradually incorporated into global mainstream asset allocation systems, and its “digital gold” narrative is gaining recognition from more institutions.

Second, ongoing net inflows and outflows of ETF funds have become the main drivers of short-term prices. Since Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved, massive institutional capital has been entering and exiting the market every day through ETF channels. We often see that if an ETF has a net inflow of a few hundred million dollars on a given trading day, the coin price will rise; if it has net outflow, the price will fall. This “institution-led” style of market makes price action smoother, but also harder to predict, because institutional buy and sell decisions are often not public.

So, in the second half of 2026, what key points should we focus on? Personally, I think first, pay attention to the Fed’s rate-cut timing and pace. The market widely expects there will be 1–2 rate cuts in 2026, which will be a medium-to-long-term positive. Second, watch developments in the Ethereum ecosystem and Layer2. With the full rollout of EIP-4844, Layer2 fees will drop significantly. In the future, more applications will migrate to the Ethereum ecosystem, driving the value of ETH and related tokens. Third, watch the AI and DePIN tracks. These two narratives are the hottest this year—many projects have already been deployed, and they are no longer just concept-driven hype.

Of course, risks cannot be ignored either. For example, changes in regulatory policy, a major project blowing up, or black-swan events. So my advice is: stay cautious amid optimism, build positions in batches, and always leave room for flexibility. Don’t bet on one-way market moves—focus on asset allocation: treat Bitcoin and Ethereum as the core holdings, and use a small portion of funds to chase higher-yield altcoins. That way, no matter which direction the market moves, you can move in and out with confidence. #夏日创作营 #Gate Plaza
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