65000 two failed break attempts, and the AI is still waiting for a confirmation

$BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币 #Market analysis

Brothers, these past few days the chart has been interesting—good news is out, but the price can’t climb.

Both CPI and PPI came in cooler: the probability of a rate hike in July plunged from 40%+ to 10%-13%. ETF inflows are also back—on July 15, net inflows were $181 million, and BlackRock alone added $139 million. ETH is even stronger—this week it’s up 11%. ETF net inflows over three days were $96 million, more than last week’s entire week.

The fundamentals are improving, and capital is flowing back.
But BTC tried to break 65,000 twice—both times it was slammed back.

First, look at the macro: the “good news” is a breather, not a full pivot

June CPI month-over-month was -0.4%, and core CPI year-over-year was 2.6%. The main driver of the cooling was the energy component—gasoline was -9.7% month-over-month. In testimony on July 14, Waller said it clearly: zero tolerance for persistent high inflation; the goal is still to restore price stability.

The market has already priced in “no rate hike in July,” but what about September and October?

More troublesome is geopolitics. Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices surged above $85. Once oil stays at elevated levels, the energy-driven inflation pullback can’t be sustained. This logic hasn’t been fully priced by the market yet.

The good news is real, but the structure is fragile. An energy-driven inflation pullback can be easily reversed by geopolitical conflicts.

Next, look at the flows: institutions are back, but there are differences

ETF flows are returning, but across the whole June quarter, ETFs saw net outflows of $4.9 billion. Strategy went from being the largest buyer to the seller—authorizing the sale of about $1.25 billion BTC to cover capital structure obligations. At this scale, it’s not something a single ETF inflow day can offset.

On the ETH side, the logic is smoother. After Robinhood Chain went live, it processes over $800 million in daily DEX transaction volume, and gas fees are paid entirely in ETH. Add the continued ETF inflows, and ETH has become the only bright spot in this round.

Capital is flowing back, but the structure isn’t balanced. ETH has narratives, demand, and capital; BTC is still digesting supply pressure.

Finally, technicals: two failed break attempts, signals conflict

BTC tapped 65,000 twice and was slammed back both times, showing real supply pressure at this level. ADX 23.4 indicates trend strength is weakening; RSI 55.7 is neutral; the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, forming a “dead cross.” The probabilities from the prediction market are: 66.6% for a drop first to 55,000, and 33.4% for a rise first to 84,000.

ETH is relatively independent—holding above 1,900, up 11% on the week. On the daily chart, MACD is trying to hold above the zero axis.

AIX today’s view & trading strategy

Direction: BTC is choppy but slightly bullish, though the strength is insufficient. ETH is comparatively stronger.
Support to watch: 64,200-64,500. If it can’t hold, it may retest 63,500 and even 63,000. 65,000-65,500 above is a strong resistance zone; a breakout needs volume to confirm.

Trading strategy:
Bias slightly bullish, but the entry timing isn’t right. BTC has failed twice at 65,000; chasing here isn’t great risk-reward. Wait for a pullback to around 64,200 and then stabilization, or wait for a breakout above 65,000 with increased volume followed by a retest confirmation before acting.

ETH is relatively independent, so you can pay more attention. But similarly, wait for a pullback to the 1,850-1,880 area, and consider entries only after you see a stabilization signal.

Wait for confirmation—more important than running in early.

Chat in the comments: you tried 65,000 twice but it didn’t work—what do you think?

Personal opinion only, not investment advice.

$BTC $ETH #比特币 #行情分析 #美联储 #AI trading