#ETH站稳1900美元 Independent market for Ethereum has kicked off; 1900 has flipped from resistance to support

On July 16, Ethereum was trading around $1,920, up 2.67% on the day. In the past 7 days, the cumulative gain reached 11%, while Bitcoin rose only 4.2% over the same period. The ETH/BTC related correlation has fallen below 0.3, and the dynamic beta has dropped to 0.6—Ethereum is moving out of its independent market trend.
After ETH formed a bottom around $1,730 on July 9, it consecutively retested and confirmed twice; this is the first time in 43 days that it has reclaimed the $1,900 whole-dollar level. The daily MACD is forming an early golden cross below the zero axis, a first daily-level bullish-strength signal since late June. Price has also effectively broken above the descending trendline since the historical high. Open interest in futures rose to $19.8 billion, the highest since June 3.
On July 15, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $53.83 million in a single day, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $45.29 million alone. In the first three days of July, cumulative inflows reached $96 million, already exceeding last week’s total for the entire week. On-chain, Bit founder Arthur Hayes bought 1,293 ETH; three new wallets withdrew 30k ETH from Cb Prime; the exchange ETH supply ratio has dropped to 0.129, the lowest since 2016.
On the macro front, June US CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and dropped to 3.5% year-over-year. The probability of a July FOMC rate hike has plunged to nearly zero, and expectations of easier liquidity provide a macro tailwind for ETH.
Ahead, 1946-1950 is the upper edge of the dense trading zone from mid-June. EMA50 is around 2,200 and EMA200 around 2,500, still far above the current price— the medium-term bearish structure has not fully reversed. If price cannot break out and hold above 1950 with increased volume, the risk of a pullback to 1900 and even 1,880 should not be underestimated.