#夏日创作营 Wall Street is optimistic about the U.S. stock market’s performance in the second half of the year

Analysts say that among all tracked companies, Yardeni Research itself is the most bullish on the S&P 500 index, with a year-end target price of 8,250. This implies there is about 10% upside from the index’s recent level of around 7,483.
Oppenheimer and Citigroup are the next two most optimistic institutions; both forecast that the benchmark index will reach 8,100 by year-end, followed by 22V Research with a target price of 8,060. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all have year-end targets of 8,000. A JPMorgan analyst recently raised the year-end forecast to 7,800.
The average target price provided by the interviewed companies is 7,716, implying an increase of about 3% from current levels.
In a research report this week, Goldman Sachs said the AI-driven tech upward cycle has not yet shown signs of topping. The report argues that semiconductor and electronic component supply has not exceeded demand, and there are no signs that technological evolution is slowing. The Wall Street giant views the recent market pullback as a healthy correction after a rapid rise in stock prices, rather than a reversal of the tech-stock trend.
Goldman Sachs believes this cycle could become one of the largest and longest-lasting tech upcycles in history. The report notes that determining whether a tech cycle is nearing its end hinges on two signals.
One is that semiconductor and electronic components shift from tight supply to over-supply;
the other is that technological innovation slows down, and the industry’s competitive logic reverts from performance-driven to price-driven.
Goldman Sachs said that neither of the two signals has appeared yet. AI infrastructure investment is still in the expansion phase; after AI servers and data center construction, new applications such as physical AI and edge AI may continue to take the baton, thereby extending this tech cycle.
The report concludes: “The continuation of the bull market is supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy, outstanding earnings growth, and continued capital support from residents. But at the same time, internal tensions in the market are intensifying—reflected in a more complex AI narrative, as well as the accumulation of speculative leverage”