SpaceX (SPCX) stock price falls below its IPO issue price: How will the August stock unlocks and earnings report reshape market valuation?

On July 16, 2026 (Beijing time), SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $135.27, down 0.60% on the day. During the session, it briefly touched a 52-week low of $132.15. This is the first time since SpaceX listed on Nasdaq with an IPO offering price of $135 on June 12 that the stock has traded intraday below the IPO price.

From the closing price of $160.95 on its first day of trading, to a historical high of $225.64 intraday on June 16, and now hovering around the offering price, SpaceX took only 34 trading days. Its market capitalization shrank from a peak of about $2.6 trillion to about $1.77 trillion—erasing more than $1 trillion.

This is not a typical pullback. When it went public, SpaceX released only about 5% of its float; the remaining 95% is still locked. A low float amplifies the scarcity premium when prices rise, and it amplifies selling pressure just as strongly when prices fall. In August, the first stock-unlock window will coincide with the release of the first quarterly earnings report—this could be a key turning point for SpaceX’s valuation logic shifting from “narrative-driven” to “fundamentals anchored.”

The Withering of the Scarcity Premium: Why SpaceX’s Stock Slid From Its Peak

SpaceX’s early rally was built on multiple factors stacking together.

First is the extreme scarcity of the float. In this offering, the company issued about 555.6 million shares of Class A common stock, representing only about 4%-5% of the company’s total share capital. That means the number of shares actually tradable in the public market is extremely limited. When demand is strong, even a small amount of buy orders is enough to push the price higher. Some market observers have described this trading structure as “5% of the chips setting a 100% valuation.”

Second is the attention premium created by Elon Musk’s personal brand. As one of the most talked-about entrepreneurs globally, Musk’s personal influence has drawn substantial attention from both retail investors and institutional investors to SpaceX. Its stock surged 19.22% on its first day, and its market cap quickly broke above $2 trillion.

Third is the growth expectation for Starlink. By March 2026, Starlink had more than 10.3 million users across 164 countries. In full-year 2025, Starlink generated revenue of about $11.4 billion, up 50% year over year, and operating profit of about $4.4 billion. This portion of the business provides SpaceX with a verifiable source of scalable, recurring revenue.

However, once market enthusiasm fades, these support factors begin to be tested one by one. The stock has retreated 40% from the $225.64 peak, and its market cap has dropped by more than $1 trillion—meaning the market is gradually unwinding the “story premium” that had been priced in. SpaceX’s valuation logic is moving from “scarce assets” to “business fundamentals.”

95% Stock Lockup: The Double-Edged Sword of Scarcity

To understand SpaceX’s current stock-price volatility, you have to look at its lockup structure.

SpaceX’s lockup arrangement is highly complex, featuring 15 different unlock dates across three groups of shareholders. In the early stage after listing, about 95% of shares are not tradable, leaving the public market with actual float of only around 5% of total shares.

This structure creates a positive feedback effect during rallies. Scarce float → concentrated buy demand → rapid price appreciation → attracts more buyers. SpaceX’s market-cap breakout to $2.6 trillion within just a few trading days after listing is a reflection of this mechanism.

But the same mechanism also magnifies downside volatility. When market sentiment turns and chasing capital exits, the limited float makes selling pressure show up in the price more directly. Investment institutions have noted that the current trading range reflects scarcity and a lack of sellers willing to sell, rather than a consensus pricing of the company’s value. “True price discovery needs three things: trading volume, a broad mixing of both buyers and sellers, and time. None of these are fully in place yet.”

Starting in August, this scarcity structure will change materially. The first tranche of restricted shares is expected to unlock around August 10, allowing about 20% of the locked shares to be sold. Then around August 21, another roughly 7% of a fixed portion will unlock. After that, multiple additional unlocks will be released through September and October. By December 8, the cumulative tradable-share proportion will rise to about 40%. Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares will need to remain locked until June 2027.

The design intent of staged unlocks is to avoid a large influx of shares into the market at the same time that could cause a sharp shock. Even so, the continued increase in supply will still create structural pressure on the stock price. The scarcity premium is fading, and the market’s pricing anchor is shifting from “how many shares are available to buy” to “how much this company is worth.”

August Earnings Report: From Narrative Verification to a Numbers Test

After the close of trading on August 6 (Beijing time), SpaceX is expected to release its first quarterly earnings report after going public. The significance of this report goes far beyond a routine performance disclosure—it will be the market’s first systematic test of whether SpaceX’s financial reality matches its valuation of about $1.77 trillion.

Market attention will concentrate on several dimensions:

Starlink’s growth quality. In 2025, Starlink revenue was about $11.4 billion and operating profit about $4.4 billion. Independent analysts forecast that Starlink’s full-year 2026 revenue could grow by roughly 80% to $18.7 billion. But there are also risks: Starlink’s average revenue per user (ARPU) from personal subscription users has continued to decline, dropping from $99 in 2023. The market will need to see whether user growth can offset the decline in value per user.

The scale and structure of losses. SpaceX’s net loss for all of 2025 was about $4.9 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the company generated revenue of about $4.7 billion, but net loss reached $26k. Data already disclosed for the second quarter shows net loss widened further to $4.28 billion. Losses mainly stem from ongoing investment in the Starship rocket project and operating expenses consumed by xAI’s artificial intelligence business. The key issue is whether these losses are strategic investments or structural defects—market tolerance for the former is far higher than for the latter.

Cash flow and capital expenditures. In 2025, SpaceX’s capital expenditures totaled $20.7 billion, nearly double 2024. Capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2026 reached $10.1 billion, 2.15 times concurrent revenue. This “spending far outpaces revenue” pattern isn’t unusual for growth companies, but under the spotlight of the secondary market, investors will demand a clearer path to returns.

A special meaning of the earnings report is that it overlaps exactly with the timing window for the first batch of stock unlocks. Earnings data will directly influence whether insiders choose to hold or sell after unlocking—this decision itself sends signals to the market.

Is the Valuation Still Reasonable: Disagreements Between Bulls and Bears

SpaceX’s current market cap of about $1.77 trillion corresponds to roughly 100 times the price-to-sales ratio (based on full-year 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion). This valuation implies the market has already priced in far-off scenarios such as Starlink’s ongoing expansion, Starship’s commercialization, and the combination of AI with space infrastructure.

The logic supporting the current valuation is still clear. Starlink has already proven it is a scalable, profitable satellite internet business. SpaceX also has rocket launch capability, a satellite network, end-user terminals, and brand recognition—an asset mix that is difficult to replicate in the short term. Wall Street analysts overall still lean bullish: among 32 analysts covering SPCX, 27 rate it a “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” and the 12-month average price target is about $240.

But risks are also significant and cannot be ignored. The valuation after the IPO already embeds extremely high growth expectations, and any data that falls short could trigger further corrections. Stock unlocks starting in August will significantly increase market supply, and the fading of the scarcity premium may drag down the valuation center of gravity. Ongoing capital investment pressure means the company may have difficulty achieving profitability in the near term. In addition, competition in commercial space is heating up, with rivals like Blue Origin and Rocket Lab accelerating catch-up efforts.

UBS maintained a “Buy” rating in a recent report, with a price target of $210, saying that a successful 13th Starship test flight would become an important catalyst. But some analysts have provided fair valuations far below the current stock price. Such a split itself indicates that SpaceX’s valuation has not yet formed a market consensus.

Conclusion: A Shift in Pricing Power

When SpaceX fell below its offering price, it wasn’t the end of the story—it was a shift in pricing power.

Over the past month, SPCX’s price has been driven mainly by scarcity, the narrative, and market sentiment—5% of the float determined a 100% valuation under low trading volume. Starting in August, as the first batch of stocks unlocks and the first earnings report is released, pricing power is shifting from “how many shares can you buy” to “how much is this company actually worth.”

This isn’t a situation unique to SpaceX. After Cerebras, an AI chip company, listed, it also traded below its offering price, and the “US stock seven” fell about 9% overall in June. In this round of valuation corrections of the “AI and space narrative,” SpaceX is just the most watched example.

Falling below the offering price by itself does not constitute a long-term bearish conclusion. After Meta listed, it also consolidated below its offering price for nearly a year before later delivering a solid upside move. But in the near term, two key observation windows—August’s earnings report and Starship’s 13th test flight—will determine whether the market is willing to price SpaceX’s long-term story again.

Before that, SPCX’s trading logic will remain in the transition period as it switches from “scarcity premium” to “fundamentals anchoring.”

FAQ

Q: What was SpaceX’s IPO offering price?

SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 at a price of $135 per share, corresponding to an initial market cap of about $1.77 trillion. It closed at $160.95 on its first day of trading, up 19.22%.

Q: When will SpaceX’s stock lockup begin to unlock?

The first batch of stock unlocks is expected around August 10, allowing about 20% of the locked shares to begin trading. Then around August 21, about 7% of a fixed portion will unlock. Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares will remain locked until June 2027.

Q: Is SpaceX profitable right now?

Not yet. Full-year 2025 net loss was about $4.9 billion. First-quarter 2026 revenue was about $4.7 billion, with a net loss of $17.7k. Net loss in the second quarter widened further to $4.28 billion. Starlink is the only profitable segment, but its profits are consumed by investments in Starship and xAI.

Q: How important is Starlink to SpaceX’s valuation?

Starlink is SpaceX’s largest current source of revenue. In 2025, Starlink revenue was about $11.4 billion, accounting for 61% of the company’s total revenue. As of March 2026, Starlink has more than 10.3 million users. Independent institutions predict Starlink’s full-year 2026 revenue could reach $18.7 billion.

Q: How do Wall Street analysts view SpaceX’s stock outlook?

Among 32 analysts covering SPCX, 27 give “Buy” or “Strong Buy” ratings, and the 12-month average price target is about $240. Morgan Stanley has a $300 target, and UBS has a $210 target. But some analysts believe the current valuation is too high.