As of July 16, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at about $1,920, up 2.67% intraday. Over the past 7 days, it has gained 11%, while Bitcoin is up only 4.2% over the same period. The ETH/BTC related correlation has fallen below 0.3, and the dynamic beta has dropped to 0.6—Ethereum is moving out into an independent trend.

On the technical front, after ETH formed a base around $1,730 on July 9, it confirmed the trend with two consecutive pullbacks. On July 13, it surged 12.5% with two 4-hour bullish long candles, jumping to $1,946 and effectively breaking the descending trendline from the all-time high. The current price has held above the $1,900 integer level—for the first time in 43 days. The daily MACD is beginning to form a bullish crossover below the zero axis, marking the first daily-level strengthening signal since late June. However, $1,946–$1,950 lies at the top of the dense trading zone from mid-June. A first touch could trigger profit-taking supply as trapped positions get released. EMA50 is around $2,200 and EMA200 around $2,500, still far above the current price— the medium-term bearish structure has not yet been reversed.

On the funding front, on July 15 Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $53.83 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $45.29 million alone. Over the first three days of July, cumulative inflows reached $96 million, already exceeding last week’s full-week total. In the futures market, top traders’ long exposure increased by more than 3 percentage points on the day, while open interest across the entire platform rose to $19.8 billion, the highest since June 3.

At the macro level, June U.S. CPI fell 0.4% month over month, and dropped to 3.5% year over year. The probability of a rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting plunged from 46.5% to nearly zero. Expectations of easier liquidity provide a macro tailwind for ETH.

However, risks also cannot be ignored: during the rebound, trading volume has kept shrinking, and the breakout lacks broad participation confirmation. After the push to $1,946, bullish momentum quickly collapsed, and the Bollinger upper band is flattening out. If ETH cannot gain traction and hold above $1,950 with volume, the risk of a pullback to $1,900—even $1,880—should not be underestimated. #夏日创作营