7.16 Thursday Midday Market Analysis

The CPI pulled up the day before yesterday, and last night the PPI data continued with a bit more momentum. Big BTC surged above 65,500, but that’s about it—after gaining fewer than 1,000 points it started to fall back, and now it’s retracing to around 64,400. After ETH pushed above 1,940, it also couldn’t hold, and has dropped back to around 1,910. This rebound is clearly lackluster: bullish momentum is fading, and the news backdrop is not optimistic either.
ETFs have continued to see net outflows. In June alone, total outflows have reached $4.5 billion, the worst monthly performance in history. One “whale” sold $4.3 billion in a single day; long-term holders are losing $280 million per day, with supply and demand severely imbalanced. On geopolitics, Trump hinted that military actions against Iran could be expanded. US chip stocks sank across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down more than 3%; overall, the macro environment is bearish.
More directly on the board: two attempts to push above 65,500 both failed to hold, and selling pressure is obvious. Chasing-up capital didn’t keep up. ETH is moving in tandem and weakening as well—1,950 is also tightly capped. In the short term, expect range-bound to downward bias; any rebound is an opportunity for short positions.
BTC trading recommendation: Short in batches around 65,000–65,500; take profit at 64,400; if it breaks down, look for 63,500. Stop loss above 66,000
ETH trading recommendation: Short around 1,930–1,950; the first target is 1,880, and if it breaks down, look for 1,830. Stop loss above 2,000