7.16 Midday Analysis

Yesterday’s precision guidance to you was spot-on with Tong Wei. We also took the current price order and the profit in the 1,000 #BTC Tong Kong Jian. Now let’s take a look at today’s chart showing a volume-shrinking rebound: although the price is supported at the BOLL middle band, the rebound has no volume. Trading volume (13.16 ten thousand) is just so-so. In such a volume-shrinking pullback to the middle band, it often signals that bullish momentum is running out.
· MACD bottom bearish divergence failure risk: Although the MACD histogram bars have shortened, both DIF and DEA are still running in the negative value area below the zero axis. This kind of “below-zero golden cross” cannot break above the previous high with volume, which easily forms a fake golden cross and triggers a more violent second wave of selling.
· RSI severe top bearish divergence: The price is rebounding, but RSI12 is only 46.0, far below the 50 midline. The rebound can’t even stand above the strength/weakness dividing line, which is a typical weak rebound—shorts can counterattack at any time.
Capital flows: the main players are using good news to distribute
· Pump up only to distribute: The “net inflow of $442 million” is extremely misleading. In the futures market, large net inflows often coincide with the main players opening shorts at high levels for hedging, not bullishness. The truly smart money is using the CPI tailwind to create liquidity and lure retail investors to chase longs.
Open interest concerns: the funding rate (FR) is only $0.0031%, an extremely low fee rate. This suggests that long leverage isn’t crowded, but it also means there’s no fuel for short liquidations. The main players also lack motivation to push the market up. Conversely, if the price dips to $61,915, it will liquidate $131.6k of long positions. This “feast” is even more attractive to the main players. One personal suggestion: around 65,200-65,800, target around 64,300-63,800 #ETH #BTC走势分析