July 16 ETH

After yesterday’s market surged significantly, it consolidated at high levels; today it may continue.

On the fundamentals, following the disappointing US CPI from the previous day, yesterday’s US PPI once again declined. “Federal Reserve Watch” indicates the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 11.2%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 51.2%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 44%. Rate-hike expectations have weakened. On the other hand, the US-Iran conflict is gradually escalating: Trump favors expanding military action against Iran, and the US military assessment includes “the most dangerous options” such as attempting to seize Khark Island and bombing nuclear tunnels.

On the technical side, in the 4-hour chart, the price broke above the key pressure at 1909. Long- to medium-term bullish signals have appeared, but upside movement is constrained by Bitcoin’s drag. On the 1-hour chart, the price is mildly ranging and consolidating; the near-term support is 1904, with a shift in momentum point at 1869.

For trading, around 1904 add a long position with a base position, set a stop-loss below 1891, and targets at 1984 and 2037. If the 1-hour candle closes below 1928, consider adding more longs; if the market drops below 1869, the market turns bearish and the subsequent plan shifts to short positions.