Daily Morning Forecast｜2026.7.16

Daily Morning Forecast｜2026.07.16 07:50 Yesterday’s Review: After yesterday’s BTC held 64,000~64,200 and then pushed up to 65,600, the support and upside move judgments were fulfilled; ETH held 1,845~1,860 and broke above 1,900, and the bullish repair judgment was also fulfilled. Altcoins gained room for rotation under the conditions of BTC stabilizing and ETH leading, but the rhythm of not chasing at pressure levels still remains effective, and the overall judgment was fulfilled.

As of 08:00 (Beijing time) today: BTC is about $64,789, down 0.39% in 24 hours, with a range of 64,487~65,600; ETH is about $1,920, up 1.48% in 24 hours, with a range of 1,864~1,946. Both on the 4-hour timeframe remain relatively strong; ETH is still leading. However, the 1-hour MACD momentum is同步回落, indicating that after a sharp rise, price is entering digestion at high levels.

Today’s main theme is a bullish repair–style range confirmation. Altcoins can select strong directions, but you cannot treat local follow-up rallies as a full-market broad uptrend.

BTC
BTC current price is about $64,789. On the 1-hour chart, price is slightly below the EMA20 of about 64,839 and the 20-hour moving average of about 64,923, but it is still above the 50-hour moving average of about 64,213. The structure has shifted from an upside push to consolidation; the MACD histogram turns negative and short-term momentum cools down.
On the 4-hour chart, price is above the EMA20 of about 64,221, the 20-period moving average of about 63,803, and the 50-period moving average of about 63,611. MACD remains positive, and the repair structure has not been broken.
On the daily chart, price stands above the EMA20 of about 63,427 and the 50-day moving average of about 63,985, but the weekly chart is still relatively weak; for a medium-term reversal, confirmation at higher levels is still needed.

Short-term support: 64,400~64,600, then stronger support: 63,800~64,100.
Short-term resistance: 65,100~65,600, then stronger resistance: 66,000~66,500.

Today’s key pivot is 64,400: if it holds and reclaims above 65,100, you may still test above 65,600; if it breaks below 64,400 and the 1-hour keeps weakening, then look back to 63,800~64,100.

In execution: do not chase a rally into the resistance zone; prioritize waiting for support to absorb.

ETH
ETH current price is about $1,920. On the 1-hour chart, price is above the EMA20 of about 1,909, the 20-hour moving average of about 1,909, and the 50-hour moving average of about 1,865—short-term is still stronger than BTC. However, the MACD histogram turns negative, and there has been profit digestion around 1,946.
On the 4-hour chart, price is above the EMA20 of about 1,860, the 20-period moving average of about 1,841, and the 50-period moving average of about 1,803. MACD remains positive, and the repair structure is intact.
On the daily chart, it is above the EMA20 of about 1,786 and the 50-day moving average of about 1,747, maintaining a bullish repair bias; the weekly chart is still below the long-term moving average, so it is not advisable to extrapolate into a medium-term reversal for now.

Short-term support: 1,890~1,910, then stronger support: 1,840~1,870.
Short-term resistance: 1,945~1,970, then stronger resistance: 2,000~2,050.

Today’s key pivot is 1,890: if it holds and effectively breaks above 1,946, the follow-through in the catch-up move may continue. If it breaks below 1,890, watch for 1,840~1,870 to absorb.

In execution: wait for pullback confirmation; do not emotionally chase higher when approaching 2,000.

Altcoin-linked view: As long as BTC holds 64,400 and ETH holds 1,890 while maintaining relative strength, altcoins will have room for repair and rotation. If BTC breaks below the pivot level, altcoins should prioritize reducing risk. If ETH turns weak and falls back below 1,890, altcoin elasticity usually gets pressured first; low-liquidity coins are especially not suitable for chasing.

Public-version trading principles: do not chase at highs; wait for key support and sell-off confirmation. If the pivot breaks, cut positions defensively first. Only consider whether the repair can continue when price is above key resistance and there is supportive volume/price action. Protect existing profits in batches, and follow the pool entry levels and single-coin strategy for complete observation—subscribe to the quick report or group document for details.

Risk warning: The above content is only for scenario-based market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are extremely volatile—manage position sizing and stop-losses. Market conditions as of 08:00 on July 16, 2026 (Beijing time); prices may change afterward.