$CL Oil prices remain relatively stable despite the intensity of the attacks, and the reason behind this is precisely what you mentioned: the strait remains technically open under US military protection.

$CL Oil prices remain relatively stable despite the intensity of the attacks, and the reason behind this is precisely what you mentioned: the strait remains technically open under US military protection.

WTI is currently trading around $79.60, while Brent is near $84.95, part of a three-day upward trend. The US launched a new wave of attacks against Iran on Tuesday, the third night of the week, a seven-hour operation that struck dozens of military targets along the coast. That same day, the US reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Trump, meanwhile, announced on Monday that he was abandoning his plan to impose a 20% "reimbursement fee" on cargo passing through the strait, instead stating that Gulf states would invest in the US – a move criticized as violating international maritime law.

As you also emphasized, there is a significant difference between the strait officially remaining open and the actual ship traffic. Although the U.S. Energy Department announced last Sunday that 8.5 million barrels alone passed through the strait, ship tracking companies are observing a sharp drop in traffic since the renewed conflict last week. The UAE's state oil company, ADNOC, announced that two of its tankers were hit by shells in the strait, killing one sailor, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have attacked two supertankers sailing with their transponders switched off.

This situation is a continuation of a pattern that perfectly illustrates how fragile the ceasefire in mid-June has been. At that time, a similar attack caused traffic to double in a single day, reaching seventy ships, before another attack interrupted this recovery. There is a significant distinction between the statement "the strait is open" and "ships feel safe"—the former being a technical issue, the latter reflecting the actual perception of risk, and these two are currently separated.

The reported technical levels appear to be consistent with this environment. WTI is currently positioned within the $78.65-$80.20 support band, indicating that the price has not yet clearly broken above the resistance levels you mentioned ($80.90 and above). Given Trump's commitment to intensifying military operations until Iranian attacks cease and they agree to reopen the strait, a break below the lower support level of $75.95 seems possible only with a genuine de-escalation signal, whereas a break above $83.15 might require a new major offensive or a complete halt to traffic.

For those tracking oil and Middle Eastern risk assets via the Gate, the key point to watch is that the actual transit numbers in ship tracking data are a far more reliable indicator than official statements, as the "strait open" narrative has repeatedly diverged from the actual traffic figures during this cycle of conflict. Whether this divergence will close remains the most critical question in the coming days.

$XTIUSD $XBRUSD

DYOR 🔎

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