Technical view: ETH recovers the 20 EMA, but major resistance still lies ahead

Ethereum continues extending its recovery after successfully defending the $1,540–$1,620 demand zone. The price has reclaimed both the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA, while the RSI jumped above the neutral level, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. However, ETH is still trading below the 100 EMA and 200 EMA, meaning the higher timeframe trend remains bearish despite the recent bounce.
📈 Exponential moving average structure (bullish recovery within a bearish trend)
20 EMA: $1,755.65
50 EMA: $1,803.06
100 EMA: $1,945.97
200 EMA: $2,220.98
ETH is trading above both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, confirming improved short-term momentum.
The 100 EMA ($1,945.97) is now the first major resistance and the key level for confirming the trend.
The 200 EMA ($2,220.98) continues to act as strong resistance in the higher timeframe.
👉 Short-term momentum favors buyers, but the overall trend remains bearish until ETH reclaims and holds above the 100 EMA.
📐 Fibonacci and market structure
ETH is still below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298.74, confirming that the higher timeframe drop remains intact.
Buyers continue defending the $1,540–$1,620 demand zone while building higher lows structure.
The price is trying to reclaim the last consolidation range, and the next hurdle lies near $1,886–$1,946.
Upside targets:
$1,886.50
$1,946.00 (100 EMA)
$2,220.98 (200 EMA)
$2,298.74 (0.236 Fibonacci)
Bearish scenario:
Losing $1,803.06 would negate the current recovery structure and increase the likelihood of retesting the recent lows.
A breakdown below $1,755.65 could trigger fresh bearish momentum toward the $1,620–$1,540 support zone.
🧠 ICT / Smart money perspective
ETH recently swept sell-side liquidity from both sides, and is now reclaiming nearby liquidity pools.
Price is trading within a short-term fair value gap (FVG) while approaching a local order block (OB), which may attract selling pressure.
A bullish reversal scenario would be significantly strengthened if followed by confirmation of a market structure shift (MSS) and a stable daily close above $1,946.
📉 RSI momentum
RSI (14): 64.21
RSI is moving well above the 50 level, indicating strong buying momentum.
A move into the 70 range would confirm continued bullish strength.
Falling back below 50 would signal weakening momentum and increase the risk of a pullback.
📊 Key levels
🔴 Resistance
$1,886.50
$1,946.00 (100 EMA)
$2,220.98 (200 EMA)
$2,298.74 (0.236 Fibonacci)
🟢 Support
$1,803.06 (50 EMA)
$1,755.65 (20 EMA)
$1,540.00 (key demand zone)
📌 Conclusion
Ethereum shows encouraging recovery signs after defending a crucial demand zone and reclaiming both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA. Momentum strengthens as long as RSI stays above 60, but the 100 EMA remains the main obstacle before confirming a larger market trend reversal.
✅ Staying above $1,803 maintains a bullish recovery in the short term.
✅ A breakout and daily close above $1,946 could accelerate upside momentum toward $2,220 and $2,300.
❌ Losing $1,755 could shift momentum in favor of sellers and expose the recent wave lows.
Overall bias: neutral to bullish (short term). ETH is building a recovery wave from a key demand zone, but confirming a bullish reversal on the higher timeframe requires a decisive breakout and continued holding above the 100 EMA ($1,945.97) and the nearby resistance cluster.
$ETH ‌