The U.S.-Iran war has fully broken out. An Iranian military adviser claims that the memorandum of understanding no longer exists—and this time, they’ve gone even further, effectively putting it in black and white: as long as the United States continues to strike Iran, the entire region will not export a single drop of oil or natural gas.

Trump has also issued a threat: if they don’t return to the negotiating table, next week they will blow up power plants and bridges. On the other side, Iran has directly flipped the table. Then everyone won’t sell oil. This isn’t negotiation anymore—no one is prepared to lower their head first.

The day before, Trump was still rewriting the script, canceling a 20% Hormuz transit fee. Today, he has restored the blockade and threatened to escalate airstrikes. Iran, too, has fully stopped performing: escalating from “condemning” to “not a drop of oil will be able to get out.” Both sides add another card—I’ll go all in—and the situation has already entered a loop of escalating again and again.

I’m not expecting the U.S. and Iran to suddenly shake hands and make peace. I believe it’s almost impossible in the short term. Both sides have already said the harshest things and taken the hardest actions. Whoever steps back by even one step is, in effect, admitting that they’ve lost. So for now, the negotiating table is just for show. What truly determines the situation is warships, missiles, and the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iran really moves toward a “zero exports” direction—even if it ultimately doesn’t achieve it completely—the market will start by trading in risk expectations. What oil prices fear most is not the realization of the news, but the continuous amplification of uncertainty. This match in the Middle East has already been struck; the next question is whether it will ignite the entire oil barrel at once.

My view is very clear: in the next few days, what the market is watching is no longer “whether there will be peace,” but “how far the conflict will escalate.” With both sides continuously upping the stakes, returning to the negotiating table in the short term is even harder than signing a new agreement.

Keep an eye on the movements of “Er Bing” and “Da Bing.” The market’s reaction often comes much faster than what the news says.

The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! $ETH #比特币