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June’s CPI came in cooler but here’s what actually drove it:
1. Energy prices fell 5.7% month over month.
2. Gasoline prices dropped nearly 10%, accounting for much of the decline.
3. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was essentially unchanged.
The headline inflation print softened.
The underlying inflation trend barely moved.
That’s why the market quickly shifted from celebrating CPI to watching oil. If energy reverses, so does a big part of the disinflation story.