CPI blasts the shorts, BTC rushes toward 65K! Do you still dare to short?

First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, full of momentum.

CPI came in at 3.5% YoY, versus 3.8% expected, and core CPI directly hit 2.6%. The steepest cooling in inflation. BTC surged 3.7% in 24 hours, strongly reclaiming 64.8K from 62.5K and pressing toward the 65K psychological level. Shorts across the whole network got liquidated brutally; the candlesticks printed a high-volume bullish candle, MACD formed a golden cross, and RSI returned to the 55-63 neutral-to-bullish range. Break through and it’s a bull market; if it can’t break through, it’s a double top.

First thing: the CPI data exploded, and the market fully reversed.

One month ago, the market was still worried about the Fed hiking rates. CPI is 3.5% YoY with negative MoM growth, and core inflation has fallen to 2.6%. The inflation gauge the Fed cares about most finally caved.

Rate-hike odds plunged from 43% to 13%, and the “betting market” for a rate cut in September is packed to the brim. Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and gold all erupted. As a “high-beta bull” in risk assets, BTC directly catapulted from 62.5K to 65K.

Second thing: ETF inflows are starting to return, and institutions are quietly picking up around 62K.

Previously in June-July, ETF outflows exceeded 1.6 billion per week, and the market wailed “institutions are fleeing.” What happened instead? Once the CPI data came out, inflows hit 180 million on the day. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way and ended its losing streak.

Institutions aren’t not watching BTC; they’re just waiting for a signal. CPI is that signal.

Third thing: the technicals have reached a moment where a direction must be chosen.

At 65K, BTC has already slammed into the wall three times.

First time: end of May, it was smashed back.

Second time: mid-June, it was smashed back again.

Third time: now, with CPI backing it, it’s pressing in on rising volume.

No more than three strikes. Fourth time: either it directly punches through to 68K-70K, or it does a fake breakout and gets smashed back to 62K.

And on the daily chart, RSI is just 55, not overbought yet. If it can rise and hold above 65K on volume, with MACD confirming a golden cross, the target for this move is at least 68K-70K.

The long-vs-short standoff—judge it yourself.

On one side is:
CPI comes in softer than expected, and rate-cut expectations surge
ETF inflows of 180 million in a single day, institutions re-enter
MACD golden cross, RSI neutral, technicals support continued upside
Geopolitical noise exists, but macro tailwinds overpower it

On the other side is:
65K failed three times, psychological pressure is enormous
Geopolitical black swans could pop at any time
If PPI or retail data heats up afterward, it could suppress rate-cut expectations again
ETF inflow persistence needs to be verified

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 65k (bulls’ life-or-death line) → 66,000-68k → 70k+
Support below: 63,500-64,000 → 62k-62.5k (“iron bottom”)

For short-term traders:
Buy on a pullback to 63,500-64,000, stop-loss at 62k. If 65k breaks out on rising volume, chase longs; targets 66,500-68k.

For swing traders:
Wait for the daily close to hold above 65k to get in from the right side; target 70k-75,000. If 62,000 is effectively broken down with volume, exit unconditionally and stand by.

For long-term believers:
Keep DCA from 62,000-63,000. Target by end-2026: 80,000-100,000, betting on the rate-cut cycle + continued ETF inflows + accelerated institutional allocation. But remember—add only after 65K truly breaks through; being above it is what makes it safe.

BTC right now is like the market in October 2023—

99% of people think “the rebound is a bull trap,” and then the ETF news drops and it directly rockets to 73K.

On the day 65k breaks through, you’ll realize:

It wasn’t that BTC wasn’t working—every time you saw the move starting, you got off the train before the upswing. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #Gate6月透明度报告 #美国核心CPI未达预期 $BTC $ETH $SOL