Today, I won’t talk about the candlesticks (K-line); I’ll discuss the macro instead (personal view, DYOR):

That surge in crypto yesterday is essentially because, on July 14, 2026, the US June CPI came in noticeably softer, directly lowering the July FOMC rate-hike expectations. This pushed down US Treasury yields and the dollar, giving BTC, ETH, and altcoins a liquidity-driven valuation reset; but this still can’t be equated with the trend having already turned. Because Waller, in the semiannual monetary policy testimony he submitted on July 14, still emphasized a “zero tolerance” stance toward persistent high inflation, with the goal still being to restore price stability. And he still has to appear at a Senate hearing today, July 15. Therefore today’s biggest risk isn’t being bearish—it’s that after chasing the rally, you get slapped back by a second round of hawkish repricing. Because many traders have bet that the Fed will delay rate hikes until October.

From a macro perspective, the key signal in this CPI isn’t that “inflation has completely ended,” but that “the short-term pressure that most forced an immediate July hike has eased for now.” In BLS data, June CPI was -0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year; core CPI was 0.0% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. The main contribution to the cooling came from the energy component: energy was -5.7% month-over-month, and gasoline was -9.7% month-over-month, while shelter simply slowed to +0.1% month-over-month. In other words, this bullish catalyst is more a short-term relief driven by energy than a broad-based, solid, and sustainable decline in inflation. Waller’s written testimony also clearly states that the committee has zero tolerance for persistent high inflation, and that it is watching how AI investment affects inflation and employment—this will limit the market from simply trading a one-off soft CPI into a full shift toward being more dovish.

The market has already voted with its feet: after CPI, federal funds futures raised the probability that the July meeting will stay on hold to 84.5%, and pushed the probability of a rate hike down to 15.5%. Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields fell to roughly 4.18% and 4.56%, respectively. This is the direct transmission chain behind yesterday’s crypto surge: rate-hike expectations roll back > the dollar and short-end yields fall back -> crypto, as a liquidity beta, is rapidly repriced.

My baseline view is that over the next 24 to 72 hours, look for consolidation that leans bullish first, but whether the move can expand into a longer, more sustained trend depends on whether today’s Senate hearing provides more hawkish new information.

Trading approach:
First, check whether the hearing is only repeating the written testimony, or if it adds more hawkish wording.
Next, see whether BTC can hold the 64500 level and whether ETH can hold the 1850 level—these levels are crucial. After a pullback and stabilization on the 15m or 30m timeframe, you can consider entering long positions.
The principle is: don’t do prediction-driven chasing before the hearing, and don’t go short the entire altcoin sector against the trend. Only take longs on conditions after a pullback. If there is clear hawkish commentary, then do a retest short after BTC breaks support and turns it into a failed move.
#BTC反弹触及65000美元

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