July 17 trading outlook:

Last night, ETH surged higher; today’s direction will face another choice point.

On the fundamentals, the U.S. June CPI came in below expectations. After seasonal adjustment, the month-over-month figure recorded a decline for the first time in six years. Following the sharp drop in nonfarm payrolls at the beginning of the month, this adds further fuel, leading the market to scale back its expectations for additional Fed rate hikes within the year. On the other hand, the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange attacks. The U.S. carried out another round of strikes against Iran, hitting dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran’s coastline; earlier today, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that they had attacked U.S. military facilities in Kuwait. ETH pulled back from high levels for consolidation.

Technically, on the daily chart, yesterday’s price action was approaching the main resistance zone after rebounding from the June 26 low. On the 4-hour chart, late last night it surged and reached the range pressure level at 1896 before entering a corrective adjustment. Today’s main test is support around 1846 below and resistance around 1900 above. On the 1-hour and 15-minute structures, there is hope for one more push higher.

In terms of execution, although the price is meeting resistance at the first target area above, the overall trend hasn’t changed much. In the short term, price is still in a long-bull consolidation phase. Therefore, today we still look for long opportunities. Strategy 1: If price pulls back to around 1846 again and gives an upside signal to go long, set a stop-loss below 1827, target 1900. Strategy 2: Go long if the 4-hour close breaks above 1909, stop-loss below 1860, targets 1983 and 2034. Strategy 3: Today’s long/short dividing line is 1794. If price fails to provide a bullish signal and turns instead lower, it will break down below 1794.