According to various forecasts as of July 15, 2026, the France team is the biggest favorite to win this World Cup. The competition has now reached the semifinals stage, with the matchups as follows: France vs Spain, England vs Argentina.

· Opta Supercomputer: France 34%, Spain 23.4%, England 21.9%, Argentina 20.6%. Based on 25,000 simulations, this is the most mainstream prediction currently.
· Goldman Sachs (pre-match prediction): Spain 26%, France 19%, Argentina 14%. Based on 50,000 simulations, driven by optimism about Spain’s Elo rating.
· ChatGPT: France 36%, Spain 29%, Argentina 20%, England 15%. Believes France’s squad is the most balanced.

Among them, Opta is especially confident that France will advance directly to the final (probability 57.7%), while the semifinal outcome between England and Argentina is predicted to be extremely close (England’s probability of advancing: 50.9%).

Of course, football is round—these probabilities are for reference only. Who ultimately wins the title will depend on the exciting showdowns in the next two semifinal matches and the final. #预测世界杯阿根廷VS英格兰 $ETH ‌