Bitcoin NUPL Enters a Neutral Zone While Long-Term Holders Stay ProfitableThe latest Adjusted NUPL data shows Bitcoin has moved into a markedly different phase from the euphoric conditions seen earlier in the cycle. Aggregate market NUPL has declined toward the neutral line, indicating that unrealized profits across the network have compressed significantly following the recent correction. Historically, this transition often reflects a reset in market expectations rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market, as excessive paper gains are gradually removed from the system.

A closer look at holder cohorts reveals an important divergence. Long-term holders (LTH) continue to maintain a comfortably positive Adjusted NUPL, despite a steady decline from previous highs. This suggests experienced investors are still sitting on meaningful unrealized gains and have not reached the level of financial stress typically associated with large-scale capitulation. Their profitability has weakened, but it remains well above the thresholds that historically define deep-cycle bottoms.

Short-term holders (STH), however, tell a different story. Their Adjusted NUPL has oscillated around the zero line after spending periods in negative territory, highlighting a market where newer participants are experiencing limited profitability and frequent shifts between gains and losses. This cohort generally reacts more aggressively to price volatility, meaning sentiment-driven selling pressure is likely to remain elevated until sustained upside restores confidence.

The three NUPL metrics suggest Bitcoin is undergoing a broad profit reset rather than entering a full capitulation event. Long-term conviction remains intact, while speculative positioning has largely been flushed out. From an on-chain and macro perspective, markets often build stronger foundations during these periods, as profit concentration becomes healthier and the probability of excessive distribution from long-term investors remains relatively low.