7.15 二饼 strategy: Lightly short in the 1870–1880 range, stop-loss at 1900, first target 1840, second target 1830.

ETH current price is 1867. After the short-term moving averages stick together, there are signs of downward divergence beginning—short-term bearish momentum is gradually strengthening.

Yesterday’s surge has the market in a frenzy; everyone is shouting about a breakout, but what I see is a signal of stalled consolidation at a high level with continuous increasing volume. If it can’t push up, it has to come down—the order-flow language is that direct. The sell pressure in the 1880–1890 area can’t be broken through by slogans; you need real money. Chasing longs here has extremely poor cost-effectiveness—it’s basically paying for the earlier profit holders.

In terms of execution, don’t let market noise get you carried away. At the current price around 1860, enter directly, or add on a retracement to 1870. Keep the stop-loss uniformly above 1900. First target is 1840; if it breaks down, then look at 1830. If price repeatedly tests around 1925 but can’t hold above it, then a short-term pullback to 1880 is highly likely. Only if it puts in volume and holds above 1950 will the bearish thesis be falsified. Otherwise, every rebound is just a correction of the bearish trend.

As the saying goes: “The market is born in despair, rises amid hesitation, and ends in madness.” Right now, where do you think the market sentiment is at? Don’t jump in as the main character only after the story is finished. Whoever writes the script in advance has the initiative.

Are you still listening to those stinking losers yelling about a breakout to chase longs? The road is under your feet, the pocket is yours—how to choose is up to you. #ETH