Don’t ask me why I’m so sure—data tells the story. Whenever there’s a pin-needle行情 around holidays, at its core it’s a carefully orchestrated psychological war, designed to test retail investors’ stop-loss limits. If you watch the trend line closely, you’ll find the support level is always held firmly and the resistance is also kept tightly capped, but each brief dip right before a rebound precisely sweeps out a batch of stop-loss orders. This isn’t a real selloff—it’s the main force washing the market.

Take the period around this year’s Spring Festival as an example. Bitcoin’s price suddenly plunged from around $42,000 three days before the holiday to $39,000, instantly triggering large numbers of long-position stop-losses. Yet just two hours later, the price quickly rebounded to $41,000, then climbed steadily during the holiday period, reaching $45,000. Those retail traders who panicked and closed positions at a loss during the sharp drop watched the reversal happen right in front of them, but couldn’t buy back. Similar scenarios repeated during Labor Day and the National Day holiday. According to statistics from a certain exchange platform, over the past year, each time before and after a long holiday, the probability of the market experiencing more than 5% short-term volatility was as high as 80%, and 70% of that volatility was fully repaired within the first two trading days after the holiday.

This operation is a classic play: first crush the longs, then push it up so the shorts regret it. The main force exploits the reduced liquidity during holidays and the fact that retail attention is scattered, so that with a relatively small capital cost it can drive large swings. Concretely, first, manufacture a panic dip before the holiday, break through the long stop-loss defense lines set by retail traders, and take the opportunity to collect cheap chips. Second, as market sentiment warms during the holiday, gradually push up the price, forcing investors who had been shorting to be compelled to buy back and close positions at higher levels, creating the so-called “short squeeze”行情. For example, during last year’s Mid-Autumn Festival, Ethereum fell to around $1,500 before the holiday, triggering大量止损, then rapidly rebounded to $1,800. After the holiday it even broke above $2,000, leaving shorts with heavy losses.

Time will prove everything. Once the holiday ends and the market returns to normal trading rhythm, go back and review—you’ll find that those seemingly terrifying selloffs are just the main force’s routine method for clearing floating positions. Remember: once a trend is established, short-term noise won’t change the long-term direction.