7.15 Wednesday 3️⃣ midday

The strength of the evening reversal exceeded expectations. It was mainly boosted by the US June CPI coming in across the board below expectations—CPI month-over-month fell 0.4%, the largest single-month decline since April 2020, and core CPI eased back to 2.6% year-over-year. The Fed’s probability of a rate hike in July dropped sharply from 42% to 17%, and a macro-sentiment recovery drove a broad-based reversal rally in risk assets. But at its core, this is still a data-driven, sentiment-led rebound—not a signal of a trend reversal.

Judging from the candlestick structure, near the prior low there was a long lower wick probing-bottom pattern, combined with a large bullish candle body overnight. This has released some short-term rebound momentum. Before it effectively holds above 65,000, I still tend to label this upswing as an over-extended rebound/relief rally, and the larger time-frame bearish structure has not changed.

Suggestions:
BTC: near 64,900-65,200, support (箜)
Target: near 64,000-63,500
ETH: near 1,890-1,910, support (箜)
Target: near 1,830-1,800
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