Good morning, everyone.

Last night, overall market sentiment clearly warmed up. It was mainly driven by the CPI data coming in below market expectations. Inflation pressures continue to ease, which also reduced concerns in the market about the Federal Reserve potentially delivering further rate hikes. Risk assets saw a rebound, with all three major U.S. stock indexes closing higher together. Technology and semiconductor sectors in particular were especially strong.

However, we can’t assume rate cuts are already a done deal. Fed Chair Powell subsequently still sent a relatively hawkish signal, emphasizing that if inflation rises again, it is not ruled out that the Fed would continue to use rate tools. This means that while the market has seen a hint of easing expectations, the Fed will remain cautious in the near term. Going forward, we still need to keep watching economic data such as employment and PCE.

On the crypto market, the news remains mixed between bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the U.S. Treasury said it has frozen more than $130 million in digital assets related to Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. government also transferred some crypto assets previously seized from FTX and Alameda, sparking market concerns about whether there could be selling pressure later on.

On the other hand, on the latest trading day, crypto ETFs once again returned to net inflows, with single-day net inflows of about $42.16 million. FBTC saw the most notable inflow, suggesting that some institutions are still choosing to buy the dip. However, over the past five trading days, ETFs have still recorded cumulative net outflows of more than $470 million. Overall, institutional sentiment remains cautious, and for now there are no signs of a full shift to being bullish.

The Middle East situation is still worth close attention. Although Trump adjusted the plan previously targeting tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, the military standoff between the U.S. and Iran has not eased. The U.S. military resumed its naval blockade against Iran and launched a new round of strikes. Iran continues to announce that it is using drones to attack U.S. military bases. Geopolitical risk remains present, and this is also an important reason why oil prices and risk-off sentiment have been swinging repeatedly recently.

From the intraday picture, the CPI data cooling more than expected has indeed provided positive momentum, further reducing concerns about continued rate hikes. In the short term, it is favorable for a risk-asset rebound. However, Bitcoin is still trading near a key pressure zone. To truly open new upside room, it needs to break higher with volume and hold the key level. Otherwise, it is still easy to maintain a range-bound, choppy pattern.

Personally, today the overall market is likely to focus on range consolidation. The key point is whether the level around 65,000 can hold effectively and attempt another upside breakout. At the same time, the U.S.-Iran situation remains what the market is paying most attention to, so it is necessary to continuously watch for changes in U.S. news flow.

Key levels to watch today:
BTC: Support to watch near 63,500; above, focus on whether it can hold near 65,000.

ETH: Support to watch near 1,820.

SOL: Support to watch near 75.5.

Overall, the news flow has improved compared with the past few days, but the market still lacks sustained volume expansion. In terms of trading, the recommendation is still to stick mainly to steady, short-term moves during the day.
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌$SOL ‌