Refuse to chase pumps and bet on the market! Full replay of the long-entry logic on the pullback

Over the past few days, a lot of friends have privately messaged me asking why I dared to enter those two ETH long positions after ETH had already risen so much. Today, I’m taking advantage of the weekend to lay out the entire decision logic in full—partly as a review of my own trading, and also for everyone’s reference.

1. The single most core rule: the effective breakout of resistance—this is the underlying standard for whether I dare to take action

In my trading system, there is one dead rule—breaking the prior high does not equal an effective hold/stance. Sounds simple, but in real charts, not many people can truly restrain themselves.

When short-term capital violently pushes up and pierces a resistance level, I’ve seen this too many times. Most of the time it’s short liquidations plus emotionally driven follow-through pushing price up—just a momentary price breach, not trend continuity. What truly lets me act is only one scenario: after the breakout, price forms a box-like consolidation/absorption above the resistance, and the pullback does not fall back and re-enter the original resistance range. Only then will I redefine the original resistance level as support again, and the structural bullish bias is considered temporarily established.

To be honest, this ETH move has been quite textbook. It surged and touched the 24h high at 1884.05. After breaking above the upper edge of the prior consolidation range, instead of quickly dumping like it often does, price maintained consolidation and absorption at the highs. The structure confirmation finished in three steps: breakout test, high-level price lock, and support flip. That met the condition of “holding above the previous high,” so that’s why I dared to catch longs during the pullback.

2. Why dare to go for 200X ultra-high leverage? A few professional logic points

I know many people see 200X and think it’s gambling. Let me say this—this is a structural turning-point market, which naturally suits high-elasticity games. This isn’t gambling; it’s execution within a system.

Right when a trend turning point just forms, long and short forces complete the reversal decisively. In the short term, bullish inertia is extremely strong, and price volatility shows single-direction continuity—not the kind of “keep sweeping stop-loss” pattern you see in range-bound markets. In range markets, high leverage indeed makes it easy to get knocked through the margin by small pullbacks. But in the early phase of a trend after a successful hold of the breakout, price has sufficient one-way momentum, and the risk exposure is compressed by the structural environment. Those two ETH long trades achieved 176.95% and 190.49% returns in a short time largely because of the structural market—not something I “took on” by hard carrying.

Also, my operating habit is to enter in batches. The first position is entered during the initial explosive pump segment; the second is added after a small pullback in the early morning. Many people don’t understand why I split into two entries, but the logic is simple: add in batches in the direction of the trend after confirmation. Under a structure where resistance is formally flipping into support, a mild pullback is healthy “washing” within the bullish context—not a signal of trend reversal. A second entry both amplifies the swing gains and gives myself another chance to correct mistakes and add.

3. How do I look at the current market? My take: stage-by-stage effective hold, a structural transition period after the bullish impulse

Let me clarify: when I say “holding,” I mean a short-term hold—not a long-term trend reversal.

The earlier key resistance zone around 1846—the upper rail of the Bollinger Band. After price continuously held there, it shifted from strong resistance into first-tier strong support. At this stage, the market is in the right-side confirmation phase after the breakout. Price is moving above the former resistance, which is a technical bullish-advantage setup. But it can only be defined as temporarily effective holding. To upgrade it into a trend-level bullish structure, more tests are needed: multiple pullbacks to confirm support around 1846 without breaking, and with volume staying mildly sustained.

Here’s my simple breakdown of the current long vs short game:

Bull side’s confidence: Bollinger Band opening disperses upward, MACD golden cross continues from a high level, post-breakout liquidity leftovers from forced buying after liquidations still remain, and institutional holdings increasing against the trend provides fundamental and sentiment backing. During the pullback phase, buyer willingness to absorb is very strong—each minor dip lets you see dip-buying capital entering.

Bear side’s pressure: On the short-term 1-hour timeframe, price is severely overbought, the deviation rate is far from the Bollinger middle band, and technically there is an inherent need for a pullback/repair. Also, the driver of this up move came largely from chain short liquidations—once passive buying gets consumed, whether additional active incremental capital can keep following is a big question. The longer the sideways chop at high levels continues, the more take-profit selling pressure will accumulate gradually.

4. A detail worth paying attention to: ETH vs BTC divergence

In this round, the major coins show a divergence impulse—ETH’s elasticity is far greater than BTC’s. While ETH completed a strong breakout and held, BTC’s upside momentum is relatively weak. In the broader environment where overall risk appetite in the major sector is recovering, BTC follows passively but lacks momentum to actively go long—this is a typical “strong support on top, weak strength underneath” pattern. I’ve been watching this closely, and it has reference value for how I allocate future positions.

5. Structure checkpoints I’ll pay attention to next (purely personal replay notes—no trading advice)

First, the key observation level is around 1846. This former resistance-to-support band remains valid for the temporary long structure as long as pullbacks do not effectively break this spot. If price falls back into the range and the breakdown is effective, then the “holding the prior high” judgment fails, and the market returns to a range-trading pattern.

Second, volume changes. In the subsequent pullback phase, declining volume and in the rebound phase, volume rising again are signs that the bullish structure is healthy and continuing. If rebounds happen on no volume and declines on heavy volume, it means incremental capital has exited—then the temporarily established holding structure can quickly fall apart.

Third, sentiment turning point. After concentrated profit-taking closes out the 200X high-leverage positions, the concentrated realization of profits at high levels can easily cause short-term volatility to intensify. Next, the market may enter a tug-of-war between “profit-taking by capital that is up” and “chasing by capital that missed the move.” The frequency of sideways movement will noticeably increase—be mentally prepared for that.

That’s about it. Writing it down is also just for my own record. In trading, system matters more than judgment, and execution matters more than viewpoints. The above is purely my personal replay and does not constitute any trading instruction. Everyone, refer rationally. #美国核心CPI未达预期