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Federal Reserve study: AI has halved the growth rate of US programmers, leaving about 500k fewer jobs over three years

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AIMPACT message, April 25 (UTC+8): Research by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board shows that after ChatGPT was released, the growth of U.S. programming-related jobs slowed significantly. Before November 2022, the year-over-year growth rate of programming jobs was close to 5%; after that, the pace dropped sharply. After adjusting for industry size, the number of programmer jobs still fell by about 3 percentage points per year, with a cumulative gap of about 500k jobs over three years. Programmers account for about 3.7% of the U.S. workforce, of which about 40% work for IT service providers, where the slowdown is most evident. The study did not find a clear wage decline; the impact mainly shows up in employment numbers. The gap appeared in mid-2024, about 1.5 years after ChatGPT’s release. The study noted that over 98% of the measurement methods would classify programmers as the occupation most affected by AI. Research from Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University found that the development of AI agents focuses almost entirely on programming tasks.
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