7.15 Wednesday BTC early-morning outlook

Late-night US June CPI’s four data points all came in significantly below market expectations, becoming the core trigger for today’s Bitcoin price action reversal. CPI year-on-year at 3.5% (estimate 3.8%, prior 4.2%), and the month-on-month figure at -0.4%, the biggest single-month drop since 2020. Core CPI eased to 2.6% year-on-year, with the month-on-month reading flat at 0%. The strength of the cooling in inflation far exceeded market predictions, directly and completely dispelling the Fed’s hawkish expectations of restarting rate hikes in July. The market began pricing in a rate-cut cycle for the second half of the year in advance. The US Dollar Index and real Treasury yields both fell rapidly at the same time, opening strong rebound space for Bitcoin.
The technical structure has seen a clear repair: price has moved back above the short-term moving average range. On the 4-hour cycle, it has held above the 50-day moving average support at $63,100, and the long-side trend structure has been re-established. The first resistance overhead is aimed at the $64,800–$65,000 level. If it holds on increased volume, it will further challenge the $66,000 mid-term pressure point. The key support zone below is $63,000–$62,600. As long as this zone is not broken, this pullback will be considered to have ended at the stage level, and the market will return to the rebound-upward channel.
Trade suggestion: watch 646–651 for short-term, target 638–630$BTC $ETH $SOL