#美国核心CPI未达预期 Although this CPI data is a major positive catalyst, driving a strong rebound in Bitcoin, the market has not opened into a one-way blowout rally; the key risks remain, and they are the biggest constraints on subsequent price action. With the conflict in the Middle East flaring up again, the geopolitical situation has become tense once more.

As the Middle East is a core global energy production region, instability there will directly push up oil and gasoline prices. The market broadly worries that the inflation that had previously cooled may rebound again due to energy price increases. This means: the current cooling of inflation is only phased and temporary; there is a risk of inflation recurring later. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cannot completely pivot to easing, and from a macro perspective it is hard to support Bitcoin in breaking into a sustained, one-way bull market. Going forward, price action will most likely focus on range-bound consolidation and structural rebounds.