#美国核心CPI未达预期 Inflation cools down, pressuring the Fed: US June core CPI unexpectedly eases

On July 14, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that in June, core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, below the market expectation of 2.8% and the prior value of 2.9%. On a month-over-month basis, it came in at 0%, the smallest increase since January 2021. Headline CPI also fell across the board beyond expectations: it rose only 3.5% year over year, while declining 0.4% month over month. Core inflation excluding food and energy notably slowed, surprising the market.

A sharp drop in energy prices was the main driver of the cooling inflation. In June, the energy index fell 5.7% month over month, while gasoline prices dropped as much as 9.7%. At the same time, the housing index rose only 0.1% month over month, the smallest increase since January 2021, and rent growth has clearly moderated. Core goods prices have fallen for the second straight month, with declines seen across categories including communications, clothing, and used cars.

After the data was released, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in July fell sharply—from above 40% to less than 20%. US stock index futures surged, and gold jumped by about $70 in an instant.

But the inflation warning has not been fully lifted yet. Escalation of the US-Iran conflict drove Brent crude up 9.6% in a single day. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates again, any rebound in energy prices could quickly reverse the current cooling trend. This CPI data gives the Fed room to pause rate hikes, but the sustainability of the inflation slowdown still needs more data to verify.