BTC/ETH market analysis

$BTC $ETH #比特币 #Market analysis

Brothers, the direction is set for today.

BTC is up 0.44% on the 4H, ETH is up 0.50%, and the 4H trend has fully flipped bullish. Under hard constraints, only go long, never short—everything is clear.

The 30-minute timeframe also confirms the bullish structure—both BTC and ETH have their prices above the EMA26, the MACD histogram is positive, and the bigger timeframe is clearly looking bullish.

The direction is there, but the AI didn’t open a single long order.

Where’s the problem?

On BTC’s 30-minute KDJ, the J value has hit 93.1, already entering the overbought zone. On ETH’s 5-minute KDJ, the J value is 89.3, also relatively high. Both coins share the same issue—there’s been too much of a short-term rally, and the indicators need to be repaired.

As for the 5-minute RSI: BTC is 61.5, ETH is 62.1, and both are in the neutral zone. There hasn’t been a pullback into the oversold area below 35 and then a rebound. The long strategy requires waiting for RSI to cross back above from below 35, or for KDJ to form a golden cross from a low position. The current signal doesn’t meet either condition.

The direction is right, but the position isn’t.

Now the strategy is: wait for a retracement

For BTC: wait for the 5-minute RSI to fall below 35 and then cross back above, or for the 30-minute J value to return to below 85 to form an effective support.

For ETH: wait for the 5-minute RSI to reach the 35-40 area, and for the KDJ J value to be below 70 before forming a golden cross.

The direction has been confirmed; what’s missing is the entry timing.

Fear & Greed index is 22—extreme fear. The rebound has just started, but it hasn’t reached a comfortable buy point yet.

Let’s chat in the comments: do you wait for the retracement, or do you chase directly?

My personal view only and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC $ETH #比特币 #行情分析 #AI trading