This time, the Federal Reserve is pushing CPI with all its might under the spotlight, and naturally that liquidity “string” in the market gets pulled tighter and tighter. On the trading screen, you can clearly feel that funds are in a wait-and-see stance—almost even with a bit of a “hesitant, cautious” vibe.

That said, the way US stock futures are moving shows that everyone already knows this in their hearts: this CPI release is unlikely to cause any weird surprises. Market expectations are basically fully priced in. But you can’t afford to be careless either. After the data delivers a decisive verdict, you still need to guard against whether the main players might use “good news already fully out” to pull off a move—sell first then push back up, like sticking in a wick and then carrying on. That script has to be watched.

At least for now, on the BTC side, I haven’t seen any signs of panic-driven exits. Price keeps getting washed back and forth within the smaller timeframes, leaving people drowsy from the churn—but the repair structure for the divergence between the three-day moving average line and the weekly K bottom is still there. In my mind, I’m clear: that missing leg of a proper, solid rebound will come sooner or later; otherwise, this round of the high-point structure can’t be concluded properly.

The only thing that’s still making the market action feel awkward is that mess in the Middle East—pressuring liquidity. But the bigger structure hasn’t broken, and I know that in my heart.
#CPI,