Wintermute: Bitcoin shows a “bearish news not falling” bottoming pattern, with the key resistance level at $672,500

Mars Finance news, on July 14, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that, under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the United States launching airstrikes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz being closed, Bitcoin still held the key support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in market performance. Last week, as US-Iran talks were suspended over related matters, Iran attacked commercial vessels, the United States launched a new round of airstrikes, and Tehran announced an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surged at one point; Brent crude’s week-on-week gain reached 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 4.57%. The market has once again raised the Federal Reserve’s September rate-hike probability to around 61%, and the US CPI data to be released this week will become a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.

In the crypto market, after repeatedly facing geopolitical risk events, Bitcoin still maintained a stable trend. After the lowest retracement, it held the $62,000 area and gradually rebounded to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with its price approaching $1,805. Meanwhile, an eight-week streak of ETF outflows finally came to an end: last week, products related to Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded total inflows of about $282 million. Although the single-week inflow is not yet enough to confirm a trend reversal, combined with recent whales continuing to accumulate and the market showing a weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a stage-based bottom.

In addition, the market’s reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin was muted, clearly contrasting with two months ago when selling just 32 BTC triggered a selloff, indicating that investors’ concerns about potential sell pressure have noticeably declined. At present, Bitcoin has shown bottoming characteristics of “negative news that doesn’t fall,” but the market still needs further confirmation. Key factors to watch next include the performance of US CPI data, whether ETF fund inflows can continue, and developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin may be able to challenge the $67,250 key resistance level; conversely, if oil prices keep rising and macro pressure intensifies, the $60,000 support may again face testing.