🔥The market will face intense volatility today: U.S. CPI release + remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair! 🚨

📊 First, inflation data will be released. Immediately after, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will deliver a speech to Congress. Note that the Fed chair’s hawkish/dovish tone could hit the market even harder—potentially overshadowing the inflation data itself!

💡 What do we need to watch?
Due to a temporary drop in gasoline prices, headline CPI may show a pullback, but the Fed cares more about Core CPI. And within core inflation, the costs of housing and services remain high. At present, the probability that the data meets expectations (0.2%) is about 50%, but there is still a considerable risk of seeing an upside surprise “hot” print.

📉 Scenario analysis for $BTC :

🔴 Core CPI above expectations (0.3%+): The market will start pricing in a September rate hike. Bitcoin will come under pressure and fall—especially if Warsh releases hawkish signals in his subsequent remarks.

🟡 Core CPI meets expectations (0.2%): The market’s reaction to the data will be relatively mild, and the real catalyst for a breakout move will depend on Warsh’s further comments.

🟢 Core CPI below expectations (0.1%-): The probability of a September rate hike will drop sharply. $BTC is expected to see a strong rebound, but due to geopolitical conditions, the rebound may quickly be followed by a bearish “shorts’ return.”