Crude oil is still trading below its daily descending trendline, so the broader structure has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal.

However, short-term momentum is strengthening.

MACD has formed a bullish crossover below the zero line, while the histogram continues to expand. This suggests that the current rebound may still have room to develop.

The geopolitical backdrop also makes an early short more dangerous.

Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have increased concerns over shipping and potential supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have already reacted to the escalation, while vessel traffic through the strait has reportedly fallen to a two-month low.

This does not guarantee that oil will continue rising.

But it means geopolitical risk is adding a supply-risk premium to the market. Any further escalation, attack on energy infrastructure, or disruption to tanker traffic could trigger sudden price spikes and short squeezes.

For that reason, I would not rush to short crude oil at the current price.

The key area I am watching is $85.50–$86.00.

This zone may form a resistance cluster:

• Daily descending trendline
• Previous support turned resistance
• Key moving averages
• 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline

I would only consider a short if price reaches this area and shows clear weakness:

• False breakout
• Long upper wick
• Rising price with declining volume
• Weakening MACD momentum
• A lower high on the 4-hour chart

If the daily candle breaks above $86 with strong volume and holds, the short thesis will be temporarily invalidated.

In the current environment, technical resistance still matters—but geopolitical headlines can override technical setups without warning.

The goal is not to predict the exact top.

It is to wait for price to reach resistance and confirm that sellers are taking control again.

Would you trade the technical resistance, or stay on the sidelines until geopolitical uncertainty decreases?

#CrudeOil #OilTrading #USIran