Tonight’s CPI and the Wosch hearing overlap, and the market is as nerve-wracking as waiting for the college entrance exam results—no one dares to make a move. BTC is rattling back and forth around the Bollinger middle band, but liquidity has already delivered the answer: the main players’ net outflow is more than $300 million, clearly large holders trimming positions early to de-risk and hedge, rather than betting on any direction.

On the technical side, although the MACD has formed a golden cross, the volume histogram is weak, indicating the bulls have the will but not the strength. RSI at 49.8 is hovering below the 50 balance line, and the rebound lacks confidence.

The key support is 61,800—this is the bulls’ final line of defense. If CPI comes in hotter than expected or the Wosch remarks turn hawkish, piercing this level could accelerate the drop toward 61,000. The resistance zone above at 62,950–63,130 (Bollinger upper band + prior high) is a dense sell-pressure area; even if the data is favorable, rebounds to this region are likely to get smashed down again, making chasing longs extremely poor value. The Bollinger channel is starting to tighten, signaling that a regime change is imminent, with volatility set to expand sharply. Before the direction becomes clear, keep your wallet tight and watch more, act less—better to miss the move than to be stubborn and go all-in.

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