Breaking! The powder keg at the Strait of Hormuz has exploded; $BTC plunged to 61.7k, and Wednesday’s CPI will decide life or death!

First, look at the data. On Monday, July 13, $BTC on TradingView saw real-time Coinbase quotes dip to around $617,000 at one point. In the early part of the session it even touched $644,000, but the selloff narrowed the gain late and flipped to a decline—down about 4% for the day. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also moved lower, as overall risk appetite cooled sharply.

Why did it fall? Falconedge co-founder Roy Kashi put it bluntly: the root cause is global risk-avoidance sentiment. Heightened U.S.-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns, while also lowering market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Funds pulled out of risk assets, and Bitcoin took the brunt.

Leveraged founder Tal Fromchenko added more detail: when the price dropped to around $620,000, it was directly linked to the escalation in the strait situation, triggering broad sell-offs. In addition, institutional inflows into ETFs slowed—on Friday $BTC failed to break through a key resistance level, which then triggered large-scale liquidation of leveraged long positions. Still, he said optimistically that this is just a macro-driven shakeout within a healthy multi-year cycle, and the long-term trajectory hasn’t worsened.

Arch CTO Himanshu Sahay looked at it from the angle of market psychology: he believes this drop isn’t about a single event, but a combined reaction to macro sentiment, positioning, and liquidity conditions—factors that can change quickly in a short period. He cautions against over-interpreting short-term volatility. Historically, $BTC often shows sharp price swings when volatility is high. Going forward, the focus should be on how macro conditions evolve and on rebuilding confidence.

Ethra Invest CEO Saeed Al-Marri shifted attention to technical factors and CPI: this move looks more like a liquidation wave rather than a loss of confidence in $BTC . Right now, the frequency of long positions being liquidated is 6 times that of shorts, clearly indicating that bullish bets are being squeezed out. The bigger driver is Wednesday’s U.S. CPI inflation data—if it comes in higher than expected, it could delay hopes for rate cuts. With higher interest rates, bonds and cash become more attractive, suppressing volatile assets. He concluded that the main story isn’t $BTC breaking down, but the broader market holding its breath for the CPI number.

To sum up: $BTC ’s pullback this time is an immediate shock to global risk appetite from geopolitical risk. Multiple institutional analysts believe it falls within the range of a normal adjustment and hasn’t changed the long-term growth profile. Watching this week’s inflation data and the situation in the strait is key to judging the next direction.

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