#沃什听证会撞上CPI On July 14, 2026, U.S. financial markets ushered in a “super inflation day”: the June CPI data and Fed Chair Wosh’s first appearance before Congress are separated by only 90 minutes.

At 8:30 tonight, the Department of Labor will release the June CPI. Driven by an approximately 10% plunge in June gasoline prices, markets expect overall CPI year over year to fall from 4.2% to 3.8%. However, core CPI is still expected to stubbornly remain at 2.9%, far above the Fed’s 2% target. Even more fraught is that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran—one that helped push June CPI lower—broke down on July 8, and oil prices are rebounding. “That’s what this data reflects—a world that no longer exists.”

At 10:00 tonight, Wosh will face questioning in Congress. Since taking office, he has adhered to a “less is more” communication philosophy, but this time he can hardly avoid it. Bloomberg Economics Research notes that the July rate-hike probability currently implied by the market is only 24%. “For that to rise sharply, we would need both a hot CPI report and a clearly hawkish Fed chair to appear at the same time—and we think neither is likely.”

The inflation figures and the chair’s wording will collide on the same day. The combined effect of the two may determine which way the policy balance at the July FOMC ultimately tips more than any single data point.