Judging from the broader macro situation, we’re currently in the most unbearable phase of recession expectations. The “water” the market wants hasn’t been released yet, but the leverage inside the market is still stubbornly clinging on. The main players will absolutely not show mercy and try to pull the market up from this level; they’ll inevitably need to accelerate the crash to liquidate the liquidity of the long positions.

Based on cycle symmetry and the pace at which liquidity is exhausted, the true bottoming-out time is most likely to fall in October this year. By then, the macro negatives will have been fully exhausted, and only alongside the market’s final wave of panic selling will they hammer prices down into a truly “golden pit.” As for the bottom price, it absolutely won’t obediently hold while staying on the moving-average line. The main players will deliberately smash through the MA200 to harvest the massive stop-loss positions clustered around the 50,000 whole-number level, create the illusion of a complete technical breakdown, and force out bleeding chips.